“Russians are taking advantage of gaps in Ukrainian lines”

RFI: How can we explain that the Ukrainian army has had so much difficulty in containing Russian advances in recent weeks?

Stephane Audrand: The war of attrition that began last fall in a context of general tactical blockage favors the side that can mobilize the most human reserves and the most material reserves. So, in this game of attrition, of attrition, unfortunately, it is the Russians who have the most human reserves and the most material reserves. For its part, the Ukrainian army had a tactical advantage since the beginning of the war because its soldiers were better trained and fought better, but it was worn out in defense.

It has worn itself out all the more because it has suffered an extremely severe shortage of ammunition due to the fact that its Western allies have not been able to produce the ammunition it needed. All this has meant that the Ukrainian brigades, including the elite brigades, such as the famous 47th Brigade, have worn themselves out when they should have been able to rest for several months to regenerate and incorporate new recruits. These brigades have been constantly engaged on the front and this has therefore produced general wear and tear. The consequence is brigade rotations that go badly, or breaches that appear because there are not enough fortifications… And so, the Russians are advancing. And what is to be feared is that the Russian advance will accelerate in the coming weeks.

The brigade rotations on the Ukrainian side seem to be causing difficulties that the Russians have taken advantage of… What is wrong with these rotations and how can they be fatal in certain sectors of the front?

Due to the lack of reserves, rotations are made without a third-party cover unit to protect them. In other words, rotations are made without a safety net. Then, the Ukrainians have a problem of attrition, that is to say that the units really wait until the last minute to move and therefore, it is often already a little too late. And then, the Ukrainian army has a command problem, a problem of operations management because the staffs are insufficient. At the beginning of the war, it already lacked modern staff officers. It lost a lot of them, it recalled old ones from the Soviet era. But we know that the Ukrainian staffs lack quality for operational command.

And so, these three difficulties mean that there are more and more rotations that go wrong, and this can create gaps that the Russians know how to exploit. With assets that they have put in place: use of gliding bombs, massive use of infantry thanks to their human resources. The Russian army therefore takes advantage of these gaps, not yet to make major breakthroughs, but it takes advantage of them more and more often.

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There are also Russian surveillance drones that allow them to know in advance where the opportunities lie to advance…

This is a characteristic of this war: there is a transparency of the battlefield that is quite unusual. Not only are there drones everywhere, but there are also radar and reconnaissance aircraft detection capabilities that mean that both sides have a good idea of ​​what is happening in almost real time on all sectors of the front. And as a result, we cannot, as in other conflicts, make rotations under cover of night or discreetly behind a wooded area or a little by surprise! Here, we have to get used to the fact that, in real time, there are drones flying over almost all sectors of the front. And this is a real challenge for the general staff.

In addition, we must not forget that, in this conflict, the troop density is still relatively low. The line of contact between the two armies is 1,000 kilometers. It is much longer than the front of the First World War, where there were millions of men facing each other. There, there are a few hundred thousand soldiers who are in this zone, and therefore, there is a density that is quite low. And it is therefore difficult to hold out all the time because there are breaches that can easily be created due to this low density.

Could the arrival of the F-16s promised to Ukraine change the situation?

This can relieve the Ukrainians, especially for their anti-aircraft defense, but it cannot change the situation. We talked about the front line, but there are also always campaigns that are played out in depth: the Ukrainian campaign against Crimea, the Russian campaign on Ukrainian cities, on the electrical infrastructure. And so, initially, the F-16s will relieve part of the anti-aircraft defense of theUkraine and will allow it to better defend itself against Russian strikes. And maybe they will help a little with the strikes on Crimea. But the decision is always made on the ground, on the front line and mainly in the Donbass. And in this area, maybe the F-16s will help a little, but it is not twenty planes that will change everything in a few weeks.

You said that Russian nibbling away at Donbass would accelerate. Should we fear a Russian breakthrough in the coming weeks and a Ukrainian collapse?

Currently, the Russian army is not in a position to exploit a breakthrough. To exploit a breakthrough, you have to be able to engage fresh, mechanized forces that can cover large distances fairly autonomously. And for the moment, the Russian army does not really have a system that resembles that. The Russians have returned to a frontal combat mode with a lot of infantry, supported by a lot of artillery and gliding bombs, to try to advance in a fairly methodical manner. This is what we call a conducted battle, a methodical battle.

What we can anticipate is that the Russian advance will accelerate, but by maintaining this methodical approach which also allows them to protect themselves from possible counter-offensives. The Russian objective really remains to seize the last cities in the Slaviansk-Kramatorsk zone, to seize the last cities of Donbass. This is what is to be feared, rather than a large mechanized cavalry which, at this stage, does not seem very realistic.

Given the Ukrainian military’s growing difficulties, is Western aid up to the task?

There is a real challenge on our side which is to accelerate arms deliveries. And from this point of view, Europe is really very late on what it had promised. There is a real challenge for Europeans and it must be remembered: if Ukraine loses, the Russia will gain a lot on the political, military, economic levels. It will not stop there in its aggression and it will cost us much more. So, the Europeans have a wall of mobilization rising up in front of them, and the longer they wait to climb the wall, the harder it will be, and the more expensive it will be.

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