There are two military bases in Syria that are important for the Russians’ ability to operate in the Mediterranean and in Africa. Agreements signed with the Assad regime gave Russia the right to keep the bases until 2066, but the fall of the dictatorship could be a geopolitical loss for Russia.
Outside the coastal city of Latakia is Khmeimim Air Base. From there, warplanes took off to bomb rebels as late as the day Assad fled to Moscow. Satellite images show that there are two transport planes and helicopters remaining at the base. It is not possible to determine what happened to the fighter plane as the images do not show whether the planes are parked in hangars. Two of the frigates are 7-12 kilometers northwest of Tartus.
The bases have served as hubs for the Russians’ military activities in Mali, Libya and Niger, among others.
– It has been important for the Russian regime when it wants to project itself as a major player internationally, explains Aron Lund, researcher at FOI.
Russia wants to keep the bases and no longer calls the rebels terrorists.
– It will take time before we can start serious talks with those in power, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian media.
Russia saved Assad
When the dictatorship was hard pressed in 2015, Russia intervened, including through massive aerial bombings. In an investigation presented by the organization Airwars three years ago, it was found that at least 14,216 civilians were killed by Russian warplanes, just over a third of the victims were children. During the war, Russia, together with Iran, has been the guarantor of the regime’s survival.
Unholy alliance between Moscow and rebels?
The war is estimated to have claimed around 500,000 lives, while 12 million people have been forced to flee. Despite the fact that Russia was on Assad’s side, Aron Lund believes that the rebels may very well be interested in an agreement with the Russians, which could mean advantages for the new government.
– It is always good to avoid having an enemy in the UN Security Council, you want to be delisted from the terror list and you want to get international recognition, says Aron Lund.