The first evidence of the use of Leopard tanks on the Ukrainian front was seen yesterday. For many experts following the war, this was a sign that the long-awaited major invasion of Ukraine had begun.
– Yes, it can be said that a major attack has begun. However, surprises can still be expected from the Ukrainians. Not all troops are committed to the battle yet, says the expert John Helin To .
Helin monitors the frontline situation in Ukraine from open sources and maintains a situational map of Ukraine’s frontlines together with his team. He says that there is currently little information coming out of the front.
– Russian war bloggers are rarely silent about the frontline situation.
According to Helin, this may indicate that the situation is bad for the Russians.
The fighting is concentrated in Zaporizhia, in the Robotyne region
Ukraine’s main attack direction seems to be aimed at Melitopol. Fighting is now taking place in Zaporizhia in the area of the village of Robotyne. There, the Ukrainians have been able to advance the furthest through the Russian defense lines.
According to Helin, there are defense lines about 25 kilometers deep in the Robotyne area. The Russian defense lines initially consist of two or three lightly fortified lines, followed by two more heavily fortified areas.
According to Helin, the Ukrainians have passed the first line of defense in some places, but the worst obstacles are still ahead. According to Helin, we cannot talk about a bigger breakthrough until the Ukrainians reach a strongly fortified defense line.
– The Russians’ first and second defense lines are meant to be breached. They want to drag the Ukrainians to the prepared extermination zones. Only behind these lines is the first strongly fortified area, says Helin.
The most important thing for the Ukrainians is to get through the defense lines and then try to block the Russians. According to Helin, Ukraine does not seem to have committed all its forces to the battle yet. Most of the Ukrainian armored forces expect Ukraine to make a clear breakthrough.
The fighting is difficult for both sides – the first Leopard tank destroyed
Ukraine announced that it had caused the losses of more than a thousand soldiers to the Russians yesterday. The reading is clearly higher than the previous days.
Well-known Russian war blogger Wargonzo wrote in the morning Telegram– on his channel, that the situation is difficult for the Russians. He said that the Ukrainians have been attacking throughout the night and that there is fighting on the Orikhiv-Tokmak axis.
According to Helin, the Russian source can be considered reliable in this matter, because usually the information of Russian war bloggers emphasizes how “the Russians fight from victory to victory”.
However, the offensive from the Ukrainians has not started as quickly as some war commentators have expected. Two high-ranking US officials commented US media to CNN that Ukraine has experienced stronger resistance from the Russians than they expected. According to them, Ukraine would also have suffered significant equipment losses already at the beginning of the attack.
A video of at least one destroyed Leopard tank also spread on social media yesterday. According to Helin, the video looks authentic and the place of destruction has been located.
The advantage of the Russian forces in the Zaporizhia region is that they have suffered relatively little from the war compared to other Russian forces, says Helin. The troops have also been allowed to prepare for the Ukrainian counterattack in peace.
– Stereotypes about poorly trained Russian troops do not apply to these units on this front. The combat morale of these troops is fundamentally higher than that of the rapidly trained Russians, says Helin.
According to Helin, the Ukrainians do not yet have much experience in attacking with such a large force.
– During the operation, the Ukrainians learn how to use their forces effectively, says Helin.
In Ukraine’s sights, possibly Tokmak – also fighting further east
Ukraine may be aiming to reach the strategically important Tokmak. The distance from Robotyne, where the battles are currently taking place, is about 20 kilometers.
– If Ukraine can get to Tokmak, there will be a lot of benefits. It is an important crossroads city from which Ukraine could continue its offensive in several directions. Moving towards Melitopol would also be significantly easier, says Helin.
It is about 50 kilometers as the crow flies from Tokmaki to Melitopol. The capture of Melitopol would be really significant for Ukraine militarily. According to Helin, reaching the city of Tokmak would mean that Ukraine would have penetrated Russia’s heavily fortified defense lines.
– After Tokmak, the Ukrainians would face weaker defense positions of the Russians. This would mean that it would be easier for Ukraine to advance quickly in the region, says Helin.
He adds that the Ukrainian attack also has the possibility of failure, and its forces may not reach Tokmak unless a clear breakthrough is achieved.
Ukraine has also carried out attacks in the direction of Velyka Novosilka. According to Helin, it is quite possible that Ukraine is still looking for a weak spot in Russia’s defense lines. The main attack could therefore take place, for example, in the direction of Velyka Novosilka.
– The big prize for the Ukrainians would be to reach the shore of the Sea of Azov. However, Ukraine doesn’t even have to reach the shore in order to say that this attack was a success, says Helin.