According to an expert interviewed by , Russia can respond to Finland’s NATO membership by placing nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea or directing immigrants to the border.
8.5. 18:57 • Updated May 8th. 19:05
Now that Russia is in its third month of aggression in Ukraine, returned to interview Felgenhauer.
We asked how Russia could react if Finland submitted an application to NATO in the near future. In addition, we wanted to hear an opinion from a Russian expert on the continuation of the war in Ukraine.
Felgenhauer continues to comment on the hostilities in Moscow, despite the fact that under the new legislation, disseminating allegedly false information about the Russian armed forces could, at worst, result in up to 15 years in prison.
How will the Russian leadership react to Finland’s possible NATO decision?
Felgenhauer believes that the Russian leadership strongly condemns Finland’s membership in NATO and may threaten to deploy nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea region. He rules out a direct military response, but no means of hybrid influence.
– There is still suspicion. Russia’s leadership thinks that Finland, considered a friend, can do such a horrible thing to it.
According to Felgenhauer, Finland’s membership in NATO has now begun to be considered probable in Russia as well.
Although Finland has been a close partner of NATO, Russia’s membership is considered a very big change. Therefore, Felgenhauer expects that when the official announcement comes, the Russian leadership will condemn it in harsh words.
According to Felgenhauer, the answer would still be much more serious if Russia did not go to war in Ukraine and be in interference with the entire Western world.
– As the fighting continues in Ukraine, there will be almost no free forces for the north. It is almost impossible for Russia to respond physically to Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership.
Instead, Felgenhauer believes Russia may respond to membership by deploying nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea region. However, according to him, Russia is already ready to use nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad.
In addition, Felgenhauer believes that Russia may adopt various means of hybrid influence. One of them could be the instrumentalisation of migration, ie the diversion of immigrants from third countries to the Finnish border.
What kind of threats can Finland’s NATO membership pose to Russia in the longer term?
According to Felgenhauer, Finland’s membership in NATO would tighten relations between the two countries, especially if relations between the West and Russia continue to deteriorate. He still does not believe that Russia will primarily threaten Finland.
According to Felgenhauer, the relationship between Finland and Russia will change more and more clearly in the same proportion as the relationship between the entire Western world and Russia develops.
– It is possible that the situation in Ukraine will escalate into a direct war between Russia and the West.
Then, according to Felgenhauer, fighting could take place not only in the Black Sea but also in the Baltic Sea, and especially in the Baltic region. In the worst case, the use of nuclear weapons could also be considered.
However, Felgenhauer does not see Finland as the primary target of Russia’s attack. The use of nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea region, on the other hand, is curbed by its proximity to St. Petersburg.
The Russian expert recalls that both sides are working to avoid the outbreak of a major war to the fullest. It has been successfully avoided in the past, for example in Vietnam, Korea and Afghanistan.
What to expect next in the Ukrainian war?
Felgenhauer believes Russia will put everything in the league on the eve of summer. If the major attack is not successful, Russia’s position in the war will become decisively more difficult.
According to Felgenhauer, the weather conditions in the spring have curbed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as it has been difficult to move tanks and other heavy equipment in the area due to exceptionally wet weather.
The expert believes that Russia will try a decisive major attack when the soil dries up, in early June at the latest.
– Russia is trying to beat the Ukrainian army with a massive blow to end the war quickly.
If Russia does not succeed in ending the war soon, it will be in great difficulty, according to Felgenhauer. Russia will not be able to maintain its position in a situation where the entire Western world is supplying Ukraine with high-tech weapons while Russia’s own arms industry is not getting the Western components it needs.
– If the war continues for half a year or a year, Russia will lose.