According to journalists, Russia’s intelligence could not foresee that Finland could join NATO due to the attack.
There is dissatisfaction with the president in the ranks of the Russian army and security services Vladimir Putinia towards. Soldiers and agents would like to expand the war in Ukraine even further.
This is what Russian investigating journalists say in ‘s interview Andrei Soldatov and Irina Boroganwhich have extensive sources in the Russian security machinery.
Journalists who moved to Britain a year ago have published several books on Russian security services and cyber operations.
Right now the machinery is boiling. Security authorities feel humiliated in Ukraine. Russian forces have fallen far short of their targets in Ukraine.
They do not blame this on their own mistakes, but on the fact that the Russian armed forces have to fight in peacetime forces. The Ukrainian army is being fully mobilized and gaining more and more weapons from the West, which has now gained more troops on the front than its adversary.
– They do not like to be restricted and therefore do not achieve their goals, Soldatov says.
Soldiers wonder why, for example, they cannot destroy Ukraine’s infrastructure with as large-scale air bombings as in the Syrian war. Admittedly, such attacks have increased during the war.
Putin has also not ordered a mobilization that would bring more troops to the Ukrainian front.
Security forces are unlikely to overthrow Putin
Although security forces are increasingly criticizing Putin, allegiance to the president still does not falter, according to journalists.
– They think that Putin is not being told the right information, that he does not understand the situation correctly or that there are some other unknown forces that are interfering with the task, Soldatov says.
Unshakable loyalty is one reason why, at least for now, it’s not worth waiting for security forces to turn against the president.
– We do not see any signs or preparations, nor any leaders who could make a coup, Borogan says.
Putin has long selected people who are completely dependent on him to lead the security forces.
In addition, both the military and numerous security services are built to obey their top management and isolated from each other. There are simply no networks where hijacking projects could be planned.
The political opposition has also been destroyed, so even dissatisfied security forces have no partners outside the military.
According to Borogan, talk of rebellion and kidnapping is the wishful thinking of Putin’s opponents. The same goes for rumors that Putin would be seriously ill.
– When there is no opportunity to change the ruler, people begin to believe in miracles that the leader would just die, Borogan says.
The FSB general became the scapegoat for failures
According to Soldatov and Borogan, the war of aggression in Ukraine has revealed a huge failure in Russian intelligence. The Russian leadership did not believe that the Ukrainian army and leadership would resist.
– They really thought that Ukraine would be led by a nationalist force that would disintegrate with the advent of the first Russian armored column, Soldatov says.
This is illustrated, among other things, by the fact that the first troops sent to Ukraine were accompanied by troops from the Russian National Guard. Their job is normally to break up demonstrations and maintain order.
The culprit for the failure has been the Director of the Security Service’s FSB Neighboring Countries Unit 5, Colonel-General Sergei Beseda.
The task of the department would have been to recruit Ukrainians who could seize power at the start of the attack and help the occupier. Here it completely failed.
According to Soldatov and Borogan, Beseda was first placed under house arrest and then sent to Lefortovo Prison in Moscow.
Admittedly, suppliers On Agentura.ru (go to another service) According to the latest information published by Beseda, Beseda would have been seen again in her office in recent days. They explain the surprise turn with the need to dispute the data from investigating reporters.
According to the latest information, the main responsibility for intelligence in Ukraine has been transferred from the FSB to the GRU for military intelligence.
Finland could be put under pressure by cyber attacks
According to Soldatov and Borogan, Russia’s intelligence services have also failed in Finland. They could not foresee that Finland could apply for NATO after the attack.
– What is happening in Finland is a shock to Russia’s security services. They are used to living more or less peacefully in a country that is considered neutral, Soldatov says.
According to journalists, cyber attacks against Finland, for example, are entirely possible.
– Such an opportunity to put pressure on Finland is and always has been, Soldatov says.
Russia’s cyber forces are well-resourced and trained and have so far been little used during the war. The best security, according to journalists, is good cyber defense, not caution about Russia’s reactions.
In contrast, Russian disinformation operations during the war have not been successful in the West.
– It is very difficult to justify this attack to the British, Americans or Finns. There is really no chance of that, Borogan says.