Russian setbacks in Ukraine – then Putin meets Xi

After Russia’s military setbacks in Ukraine, much is also at stake for China, which has sided with Russia. Now the countries’ leaders are meeting for the first time since the Great Invasion.

– They are probably as surprised as anyone else by how badly things are going for the Russians, says a China analyst.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are seen at an Asian Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit that begins in Uzbekistan on Thursday. It is the first trip abroad that Xi has made since the start of the corona pandemic.

The last time the two met was on February 4 this year, just under three weeks before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At that meeting, the leaders spoke of a partnership “without borders”.

Have not condemned

Xi has said he understands Russia’s actions in Ukraine and has so far not condemned the Russian invasion. But the country had probably not counted on the recent Russian setbacks in parts of the Kharkiv region.

– I probably think that the Chinese had expected a different outcome from a purely military point of view. They have had respect for the Russians’ military ability, and it has not gone at all as they had planned. So from China you probably want to find out what’s going on, says Christopher Weidacher Hsiung, a security policy analyst with a focus on China, with a focus on, among other things, the China-Russia relationship, at the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI).

It is unclear whether there will be any statements or any other form of information about what the two superpower leaders talked about during the expected individual meeting.

Gradually improved

The relationship between China and Russia has gradually improved since the end of the Cold War, which became even more evident with the major joint cooperation program announced at the meeting in February. Among other things, the countries have extensive security cooperation with joint military exercises and China imports a lot of oil and natural gas from Russia, an import that has increased significantly recently.

China and Russia are neighbors, both are great powers and trade between them is large. They are also on the same page regarding the view of the United States, which is seen as a threat to their own interests.

– The United States and the West in a broad sense are seen as a challenge to their own political governance and its legitimacy. And it has grown stronger in recent years, the common threat image from the United States, which means that the Chinese and the Russians are on the same side in this great power struggle, says Christopher Weidacher Hsiung.

At the same time, China wants to maintain its economic ties to Europe and the United States, which are important to the country’s economy. In that sense, connecting with Russia can be seen as a balancing act.

Counterweight to the US

A protracted low-intensity conflict in Europe could benefit Beijing, because in that case the US would have to deal with the situation in Europe and at the same time China – which, according to the US, is the biggest long-term security policy challenge.

– But a Russia that is too weak would also have consequences for the Chinese, because they have invested in Russia as their partner in the fight against the USA. If that partner is lost, or if it is greatly weakened, it could be a problem for the Chinese in the competitive situation with the Americans, says Christopher Weidacher Hsiung.

Among the member states of the regional institution SCO, there is a hope that it will be able to function as a counterweight to Western-centric international organizations.

– – For China and Russia, it is about the Central Asian states creating some kind of stability, that the region does not become unstable, because that backfires on China and Russia themselves.

Facts

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