President Vladimir Putin barely survives the Ukraine war as Russia’s leader. This is what a British Russia researcher believes Mark Galeotti.
Galeotti has studied the Russian administration, security services and organized crime in his career. He has published a total of 26 books, mostly about Russia.
According to Galeotti, Putin’s power will most likely end with his inner circle ousting him before long.
– There are more and more signs of a scenario where Putin is forced to resign. He will be offered protection and comfortable retirement days, Galeotti says in ‘s video interview.
This is what happened to the last Tsar of Russia to Nicholas II in February 1917, when the country was losing in the First World War. At that time, generals and politicians informed the Tsar that he must abdicate.
Nicholas II lived under house arrest and imprisonment for a good year, until the Bolsheviks murdered him and his family in 1918.
Galeotti emphasizes that the displacement scenario will not be relevant in the near future. It is also possible that 70-year-old Putin’s health is failing.
“Putin is fighting his last war”
Researcher Galeotti believes that Putin is fighting his last war anyway. The war in Ukraine has weakened Russia’s armed forces so much that Putin is unable to send troops elsewhere.
According to Galeotti, NATO-Finland is currently safe from Putin.
Although Russia has begun to improve its garrisons located near the Finnish border, it has also sent more and more equipment from them to Ukraine.
– The Russians fully understand that they cannot in any way credibly threaten or challenge NATO in the near future.
According to Galeotti, Finland and other NATO countries should now focus more on countering Russia’s covert operations and cyber attacks than the traditional attack threat.
The war success made Putin make a mistake
Researcher Galeotti’s book Putin’s Wars from Chechnya to Ukraine, which has just been published in Finnish, examines the wars started by the Russian president in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, Eastern Ukraine and Syria.
According to Galeotti, these rather small wars went so well that they made Putin overestimate Russia’s military might. At the same time, Putin renewed the armed forces with billions.
So he decided to launch a major invasion of Ukraine. This was a fatal mistake, says Galeotti.
Success after success paved the way for a huge and catastrophic defeat.
The mistake was deepened by the fact that Putin ordered the attack to begin, completely contrary to Russian military doctrine.
The attack had no unified leadership, it did not begin with massive air and cyber strikes, and there were nowhere near enough troops.
The Ukrainians fought back fiercely when Putin assumed they would surrender quickly.
– In this sense, Putin himself was the Ukrainians’ secret weapon, says Galeotti.
The Russian game has not been played
Now the Russian armed forces are stuck in Ukraine. According to Galeotti, its troops are not capable of larger attacks.
Not even a new larger business proposal, which according to Galeotti is almost certainly coming, will not help this. The new soldiers are poorly equipped and trained and have little desire to fight.
Russia’s game is still not played.
It now seeks to fend off a Ukrainian counteroffensive until winter and rain slow progress. In the winter, the purpose is to build more fortresses and minefields in case the battles intensify again in the spring.
Russia has also learned from its mistakes and has accelerated its ammunition production.
– Their strategy is to try to tire Ukraine and the West. If the West stops sending billions of euros, pounds and dollars to Ukraine every month in military and economic aid, the war will begin to turn dramatically against Kiev.
Ukraine is winning
According to Galeotti, it still looks like Ukraine will win the war one way or another.
– In the West and in Ukraine, it is hoped that the Ukrainian troops can drive the Russians away from every centimeter of Ukrainian soil. That still seems pretty unlikely.
Instead, victory may ultimately mean negotiations and an agreement in which Crimea ends up under international control or its fate is decided by a referendum.
Ukraine also needs guarantees that Russia will not continue to threaten Ukraine from behind the border.
According to Galeotti, such negotiations will hardly take place as long as Putin is in power.
– The new administration can say that it was Putin’s war, not ours, says Galeotti.
The topic can be discussed until September 13 at 11 pm.