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HELSCRACK NILSSON Director of the Military Intelligence and Security Service. Photo: Pontus Lundahl/TT
Russia does not have the prerequisites for a major armed attack on Sweden today, according to Must.
But in the coming years, the Russian military threat to Sweden and Sweden’s immediate area may increase.
A large part of Russia’s military is currently bound in Ukraine. But a lot is also left in the Baltic Sea area. It is not least about Russian combat vessels and fighter flights, nuclear weapons and cyber capacity.
A larger land rise or air landing of Russian forces in the Baltic Sea area is not considered probable, according to the military intelligence and security service (MUST).
– Russia does not have the prerequisites to carry out a larger conventional armed attack, says Thomas Nilsson, head of Must.
Set to misery
However, it is possible that the Russian leadership could choose to act even more aggressively against any of the countries around the Baltic Sea.
– You have resources to be tapped already today that could do with great misery, says Nilsson.
This may include, for example, qualified cyberattacks with a major impact on society. But also nuclear threats. In the Russian exclusive Kaliningrad on the other side of the Baltic Sea there is the Robot System Iskander, which is often associated with tactical nuclear weapons.
– I am not saying that the risk of a nuclear attack has increased. But there are resources that are graspable and we hear how Russia speaks, we note that they make changes to their nuclear weapons doctrine, says Nilsson.
Will and purpose
He emphasizes that it must also be a will from Russia and a purpose of what one would achieve through such operations.
– So far we have not seen that and it also goes back to the fact that we joined NATO, he says.
It is clear, however, that the threat to Sweden and countries in the immediate area can increase when the war in Ukraine ends, according to Must. And then it can go fast. In just a couple of years, Russia can significantly increase its military ability in the immediate area.
Ready for war
The Danish intelligence service makes the analysis that Russia may be ready for a regional war within two years, and a large -scale war within five years. Must makes similar assessments.
– In the short term, resources that are tied in Ukraine can be redistributed today. It is associations, soldiers and equipment that have some combat experience, you have learned a lot from the battlefield.
– Should Russia end up in par with the resources you had before its attack against Ukraine in 2022, we believe it is five years you are talking about.
Russia has lost a lot of weapons, soldiers and equipment, how can they recover so quickly?
– You have huge losses, but so far you have managed to support. You do this because you have contracted soldiers that you pay abundantly. When it comes to equipment, the industry goes high and unfortunately you get support from China and some other countries.
Facting Danish assessment
The military intelligence service in Denmark (FE) has sketched out various scenarios after the war in Ukraine ended.
– After six months, Russia could make a minor conflict in a neighboring country.
-After about two years, Russia could pose a credible threat to one or more NATO countries, or be able to handle a regional conflict in the Baltic Sea region.
– After five years, Russia would be ready for a large -scale war in Europe.
This is based on the fact that the United States is not willing to interfere and the NATO countries do not in the same rate.
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