Currently, Russia’s losses are around 315,000 dead or wounded.
If Russia loses soldiers at the current daily rate for the next year, by the end of the year the loss of men will increase to half a million, the British Ministry of Defense estimates.
It was announced in December US intelligence assessment according to the current Russian men’s losses are about 315,000 dead or wounded.
The Ministry of Defense presents its assessment in the X message service.
The estimate is based on the figures presented by Ukraine about the daily losses of men in Russia. Although the Ukrainian figures cannot be trusted exactly, the British see them as giving an indication of the real situation.
During 2023, the Russian daily losses presented by Ukraine have increased by an average of about 300 soldiers compared to 2022. The figure includes the dead and wounded.
According to the British assessment, the increase probably means that during the war, Russian professional soldiers have been replaced by less trained, inexperienced soldiers who are used in mass attacks.
According to the previously mentioned US estimate, Russia would have lost approximately 90 percent of the personnel employed at the beginning of the war.
Ukraine’s challenge is a shortage of ammunition
If the loss of men continues at last year’s pace, Russia will have lost half a million soldiers in Ukraine by the end of 2024. The British compare it to the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan, with 70,000 dead or wounded between 1979 and 1989.
The Ministry of Defense estimates that in Russia it will take 5–10 years before the new, professional and experienced troops are operationally ready.
In terms of the development of the war situation, the soldiers and armament available to Ukraine play a decisive role. Ukraine plans to mobilize hundreds of thousands of soldiers to the front, and there is no certainty that this will be successful.
The ammunition situation is also a decisive factor.
The Wall Street Journal evaluates in its article todaythat while in the summer of 2023 Ukraine used an average of 7,000 artillery pieces per day, currently Ukraine only uses 2,000 artillery pieces per day.
Sources: Reuters, WSJ