Russian military equipment worth billions of euros has been destroyed in the explosions in Crimea – how has Ukraine managed to carry out the attacks, an expert answers

The Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula has seen huge series of explosions in recent days, in which a large amount of Russian military equipment has been destroyed. Ukraine has indirectly admitted to being behind the explosions.

Alexander Institute Visiting researcher Ilmari Käihkö states that Ukraine has moved to a new kind of strategy in which the threat is taken to the territory occupied by Russia.

Kaishkö has no definite information about how Ukraine would have carried out the devastating attacks on the ammunition depot near Džankoi and the Saky military airport. Most likely, the attacks were carried out either by taking explosives to the targets or using short-range drones.

One option is also the Switchblade 300 aircraft, which the United States has delivered to Ukraine. Switchblades are very small in size, they fit in a suitcase.

The Switchblade is a so-called “floating projectile”. Thanks to their own propeller and wings, they can fly in the air for ten minutes. During that time, the shooter can select a target and program it into the gun’s control system, after which the gun will plunge into the target like a missile with extreme precision. The explosive power of the Switchblade is equivalent to a 40 millimeter grenade.

According to Ilmari Käihkö, the Switchblade could be a good alternative to the weapon with which the attacks were carried out. He points out, however, that Ukrainian soldiers at the front have found the Switchblade difficult to use. For this reason, they prefer commercial airplanes built in Ukraine or converted for military use.

– Of course, it could be that the special forces have been trained to use Switchblades, he reflects.

According to Käihkö, an attack by the Ukrainian Air Force is an unlikely option because Russia has a strong air defense in Crimea.

Long-range missiles are also unlikely to come into question, because Ukraine reportedly does not have them, and no eyewitness has said that they saw the exhaust gas left by the missile or heard their sound, Käihkö says.

Käihkö wants to highlight the difference between Ukraine’s trained special forces and partisans. Ukraine often talks about both under the title of “partisan”, but there is a significant difference in skills.

Special forces have good training for working behind the front, such as sabotage attacks and intelligence. Guerrillas are citizens who can help soldiers but do not have special training.

– I have to remember that the special forces published a guide book with “partisan tips” even before the war. There was advice on how to pour sugar into the tanks of Russian vehicles [moottorin jumiuttamiseksi]tires are slashed and Molotov cocktails are made, Käihkö says.

According to Käihkö, special forces have substantially better conditions than partisans to carry out large-scale destructive attacks.

Ilmari Käihkö considers both attacks significant.

– Especially the first blow [Sakyn lentokentälle] was significant. First of all, it cost billions worth of equipment and pilots. There are only a small number of them and they are very expensively trained. In addition, there were technical staff and infrastructure. It was a good blow for Ukraine militarily.

Another strike on the ammunition depot is likely to undermine Russia’s ability to operate in the Black Sea and southern Ukraine, as Russia has been supplying its forces through Crimea.

Käihkö considers Ukraine’s new way of warfare and the political message related to the attacks to be a bigger issue than individual attacks. Ukraine is now able to strike farther from Russia’s rear, which makes it difficult to maintain its forces.

– Russia has to transport ammunition to the front line in trucks, which is inconvenient. And these are additional destinations for Ukrainians.

Countermeasures can be expected from Russia as a result of the attacks. Vice-chairman of the country’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has threatened Ukraine”on the day of judgment (you move to another service)“, if it starts attacking Crimea.

As a result of the attacks, the fear of partisans planted among the Russians and their Ukrainian supporters has become a new feature of the war, Käihkö points out.

Ukraine wants to create insecurity especially through the threat posed by partisans rather than missile strikes.

– Especially if it’s not just special forces but a broader resistance. Yes, the fear is greater then. It’s like an invisible enemy. It’s somewhere, but not visible.

Käihkö tells about Ukrainian information, according to which, for example, more than a hundred pro-Russian officials and other collaborators were killed by partisans in the Melitopol area alone. Ukraine is especially trying to prevent Russia from holding a referendum on secession from Ukraine.

The support of the local population is paramount for both parties. Käihkö estimates that in 2014 – 2015, when the war in Donbas began, the front line was roughly aligned with where the population supported Russia.

According to Käihkö, this explains why Russia acts very brutally towards those it considers its opponents. We want to get rid of the disloyal part of the population.

In the case of Ukraine, the use of partisans carries the risk that untrained troops will start doing wrong things and commit excesses. This would be, for example, violence against civilians, Käihkö reflects.

– This was seen in 2014-15 in connection with the so-called volunteer battalions. They were nominally in the service of the Ukrainian state, but they did commit war crimes, Käihkö says.

The Ukrainian armed forces are trying to keep the partisans under control by sending trained soldiers among them.

You can discuss the topic until Friday, 19.8. until 11 p.m.