For three weeks, Russian forces have been trying to approach Avdijivka. But according to information from several sources, there are many indications that there have been no successes.
– Russia has thrown in everything they have without particular finesse or regard for their own soldiers. And according to Ukraine, but also from Russian bloggers, it has meant very large losses, says Joakim Paasikivi.
Wants “symbolic victory”
From the Ukrainian side, it is about 500-1000 fallen Russian soldiers per day, but according to Paasikivi, the figures are difficult to confirm.
– It is not impossible that the numbers are correct and there is a high probability of large Russian losses. But it is impossible to know the exact extent, he says.
Avdijivka was taken by Russia in 2014 – but then reclaimed by Ukraine. Therefore, a recapture would be a symbolic victory for Putin in his war of invasion against Ukraine.
– This would be a way to say in front of your own home audience that you continue to liberate the counties in Donetsk that you have so far not succeeded in doing to any great extent. To plant the flag and say that everything is working according to plan, says Joakim Paasikivi.
The front line is basically unchanged since 2014. Ukraine has therefore had plenty of time to prepare and equip.
– It seems to be well structured from the Ukrainian side, says Joakim Paasikivi.
Putin’s last resort: Cannon food
Now the Russian forces are faced with an additional challenge. Autumn’s greatly changed weather conditions mean that the combat vehicles that have been used so far are at risk of getting stuck.
Joakim Paasikivi tells us that there is a move that Russia can use, but that they will be even bloodier.
– It is not impossible that they go over solely to what characterized the battles in Bachmut: That you send forward a foot squad of perhaps 15-30 who basically get shot away, he says and continues:
– Then you can see where the Ukrainian forces are and you can attack that way. But that will mean enormous personal losses.
Then Russia is forced to back down
A failure in Avdijivka would be a major defeat for Putin. So far, Russia has barely managed to capture any area adjacent to the city. If you do not succeed in this soon, the forces may be forced to retreat.
– Russia needs to use the units where Ukraine is pushing, in Bachmut or Luhansk for example. Ukraine continues its offensive in the south and if they advance in the southwest, the Russians have a dilemma: Where do you need reinforcements and what do you need to focus on?
– Do they consider that they have large enough units or will it be dangerous if you continue to send your reserves forward in Avdijvka, says Joakim Paasikivi.