The cold shower and the big wool sweaters. This is how the Germans imagine spending the winter if Vladimir Putin permanently cuts the gas taps. “The situation is serious”, repeats for months Robert Habeck, the environmental vice-chancellor. Also Minister of the Economy and the Climate, he urges the population to reduce their time spent in the shower in order to save energy. Which triggers the laughter of the opposition. “The truth is not in the shower,” quips conservative Markus Söder, who is minister-president of Bavaria. According to him, Habeck “did not realize the gravity of the situation”. But the three-minute shower is not just a token measure. “Knowing that half of German homes are heated by gas, it is far from negligible to save money on a national scale”, estimates Franziska Holz, deputy director of the Energy department at the Institute for Economic Research of Berlin (DIW).
One thing is certain: the situation is worrying. “In the event of a permanent cut, we will be faced with the most serious economic crisis since the end of the war; in Germany and throughout Europe”, warns Sebastian Bolay, director of the energy department at the Federation of Chambers of Commerce and German Industry (DIHK) headquartered in Berlin, on the banks of the Spree. “The problem is that Germany has been relying on this energy since the days of the Soviet Union, he continues. It was the cheapest energy…” Result? The share of Russian gas reached 55% of imports before the war in Ukraine. Despite this dependence, Germany has never seen fit to define a crisis strategy in the event of a cut. When he took office in Bonn last February, the president of the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) Klaus Müller was surprised not to find an “Orsec Plan” in the drawers of his administration.
The most popular official in the country, Habeck-l’écolo (tendency “realo”, or realistic) has put aside his convictions to prepare Germany for a difficult winter. He is reopening coal-fired power stations when he had made the abandonment of this polluting energy his major campaign theme. The first of these reopened in Lower Saxony on August 1. Robert Habeck has also agreed to discuss an extension of the lifespan of the last three nuclear power plants in service, which are supposed to close at the end of the year. A major concession, because the abandonment of the atom was the main political conquest of the Greens, after decades of struggle.
“We are going to run out of gas but also of electricity”
To fill the tanks, the minister is looking for gas everywhere, in the United States but also in the Arabian Peninsula, where his party has nevertheless condemned human rights abuses for years. Two floating import terminals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be ready by the end of the year. Another battle horse: the hunt for waste. Cold showers in swimming pools, reduced public lighting, stopping the illumination of historical monuments, including the Reichstag dome: the whole country is making an effort. For its part, Vonovia, the leading German real estate group, announces a drop in temperature in its 250,000 homes connected to district heating between 11 p.m. and 6 a.m., from 20 to 17 degrees. In anticipation of the cold, the Germans flocked to wood (or pellet) stoves and space heaters. However, the intensive use of these electric heaters could saturate the network. “We are going to run out of gas but also of electricity”, warns Sebastian Bolay, at the DIHK. “A blackout is not excluded,” adds Franziska Holz, from the DIW institute.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (c) and Ukrainian Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova (g) in Boutcha, northwest of kyiv, May 10, 2022
afp.com/Fedir Petrov
Companies are urged to save money. The railway company Deutsche Bahn plans to reduce the speed of trains and return to service as many diesel locomotives as possible. For its part, the Federal Network Agency draws up a list of companies deemed “essential” to the proper functioning of the country in the event of rationing. But the mission is difficult: “How to classify an industrialist who manufactures gear wheels for vehicles but also for medical equipment?” asks Sebastian Bolay.
A new period of recession seems inevitable
Another idea: launch an “energy savings grant” to financially reward companies that reduce their gas orders. The reactivation of oil-fired power plants, for companies that have old installations, is one solution among others. But it takes up to a year to get permission. In reality, the room for maneuver is narrow. “Companies have already reacted to rising energy prices for a long time by making savings where they could, underlines Sebastian Bolay. According to one of our recent studies, half of them are now planning a reduction, or even a total stoppage of their production due to the high cost of energy. Some products are simply no longer profitable to manufacture”.
A recession seems inevitable. It would be added to that of the pandemic in 2020 which had already resulted in a 5% decline in GDP… This tense situation raises fears of large-scale social movements after the arrival of the first bill reminders of gas: the Germans will discover them in their mailboxes from October 1st. According to the Federation of Building Companies (GdW), four-person households will pay almost 5,000 euros extra for their heating and electricity this year. Annalena Baerbock, the other environmentalist leader in the government – she heads the Ministry of Foreign Affairs – is hardly optimistic. It does not exclude “popular uprisings” … from the start of the school year.