Russian gas, EU accelerates on “independence level”: where are we?

Austrian Chancellor in Moscow Conversation with hard and frank Putin

(Finance) – Russia fell to about 10% of our gas supplies, while historically it was between 40 and 45%. This was stated by the spokesman of the European Commission, Tim McPhie, in the daily briefing with the press underlining that “Norway is now our largest gas supplier”.

McPhie took stock of the situation: “The United States has filled part of this gap already going above the level we set ourselves to reach in the EU-US bilateral agreement on LNG supply “, he explained, underlining that” We are seeing, thanks to our talks and efforts at Member State level, a increased supplies from a variety of different manufacturers ”.

“We have worked with numerous partners including l‘Azerbaijan, Algeria, we have a trilateral agreement with Israel and Egypt and obviously there are also other LNG suppliers – he added.

“We are also seeing initiatives to accelerate renewables and reduce demand. We have already reached an agreement on reducing gas demand for this winter. The Commission has now proposed an additional regulation on the reduction of electricity demand, which has a consequence for the use of gas. So these are the pillars we are pursuing, ”concluded McPhie.

Meanwhile, more generally, the scenario remains evolving and, obviously, delicate. It is not yet time to sing victory but it is not too dangerous to assume that the worst could be be behind. Even in the event of a total interruption of gas flows from Russia, winter should not represent a problem for the EU which would seem to have run for cover in time by working on a double front: filling of stocks on the one hand and anti-price increases from other, which should be able to bring down the price of gas, almost halving, after the surge in recent months. This is the forecast released in recent days by US investment bank Goldman Sachs.

Compared to today’s values, that is 215 € / MWhthe price of gas should in fact fall below 100 € / MWh by the first quarter of 2023 in the event of average climatic conditions during the winter, before the ascent in the summer when the rush of operators to fill the storage facilities will be repeated.