Changing course in Germany? After more than ten years of running behind the objective of a definitive exit from nuclear power by the end of 2022, doubt is creeping in. Berlin is almost there, but the geopolitical and energy context, fueled by tensions with Russia, could change the situation. Traveling on Wednesday August 3, Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, estimated that extending the operating life of the last three power plants still in operation in Neckarwestheim, Lingen (Isar) and Niederaichbach (Emsland), in the south and west of country, could “make sense”. This, even if they “are only relevant for the production of electricity and only for a small part of it”, or about 6% of the net production of electricity of the country.
If it were to materialize, this decision would constitute a major reversal in German energy policy. Since the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, and faced with the dramatic spectacle of Japanese desolation, Germany has planned, in the wake of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, a total abandonment of the atom. A decision taken for its own electricity mix, composed at the time of 25% nuclear, but also pushed beyond its borders, through extremely strong declarations at European level to convince other countries to abandon this energy . The debates on European taxonomy, during which Berlin opposed the labeling of the atom as green energy, is the most recent example. In 2011, Angela Merkel’s decision was supported by more than 80% of public opinion.
German energy ambition at an impasse
To compensate for the closure of the power stations, the federal state then developed a strategy relying heavily on renewable energies. In the space of 10 years, they have gained considerably in importance: from 7% in 2010 to 18% in 2020 in the electricity mix, according to data from Bp Statistical Review of World Energy. At the same time, the share of nuclear power is halved, and goes from 10 to 5%. However, Germany must rely on other energy sources capable of compensating for the intermittency while the transition is completed. Among them: gas and coal. In 2021, several coal-fired power plants have closed, making the import of gas even more essential. The share of gas fell from 21% in 2000 to 26% in 2020, according to the Jacques-Delors Institute, while that of coal fell by 10 points over the same period. Over the years, Russia has proven to be an indispensable partner for Berlin… As a result, Germany was 55% dependent on the russian gas before the crisis in Ukraine began.
Last autumn, the wild increase in gas prices gave the first signal of the vulnerability and dependence of the German energy model. In question at the time? The very strong Chinese demand, whose economy was picking up again at full speed, the harsh winter that hit part of the globe and the increase in the price of CO2 quotas that gas producers must pay. But not only. Russia was already accused of political maneuvering, even before the start of the war in Ukraine, by voluntarily limiting the volumes of gas exported to Europe and Germany. The challenge is to put pressure on the European Union in order to obtain authorization to put the Nord Stream 2 pipeline into service between Russia and Germany.
Since February and the invasion in Ukraine, the situation has worsened. From mid-June, only 40% of the capacities of Nord Stream 1, linking Russia to Germany, were used and, since July 25, only 20% of the gas is circulating in the pipe. The official reason for this latest tightening ordered by Moscow comes, according to the Kremlin, from a turbine sent for repair in Canada and then returned to Germany which has still not been returned to it because of the sanctions imposed by the European Commission since the start of the war. Wrong, retorts Olaf Scholz. According to him, “there is no reason that would prevent the delivery from taking place” and Moscow must just “provide the necessary customs information for its transport to Russia”, he underlined during a visit to the Siemens plant in Mühlheim an der Ruhr, where this turbine is located. In his eyes, it would only be “a pretext” to influence Western choices in the context of the conflict with Ukraine.
Paradigm shift in public opinion
But at a time when the gas shortage is no longer just a bad dream and seems more and more likely on the other side of the Rhine, all solutions to guarantee security of supply are on the table. Including, therefore, that of the return to nuclear power. The reversal was dazzling since on March 8 again, the Ministers for Energy and the Environment, the environmentalists Robert Habeck and Steffi Lemke, indicated that “after weighing the advantages and the risks, and despite the current gas crisis, an extension of the life of the three nuclear power plants still in operation is not recommended”. But a few months later, in June, Robert Habeck himself admitted that the government was preparing to make “very difficult choices for society”. However, the three nuclear power plants still in operation could help save some gas to reserve it for individuals and businesses that need it most. And the Germans are aware of it: 68% of them are in favor of a review of the country’s nuclear phase-out, according to a poll by the Forsa institute for RTL/ntv.
Politically, the question remains thorny. The conservatives of the CDU-CSU, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany, as well as the far-right AFD party declared themselves in favor of maintaining the centrals. A way also to unite to crack the ruling coalition, made up of the Social Democrats, the SPD, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats of the FDP. The latter are historically the greatest defenders of nuclear power in Germany. Moreover, the Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, had already spoken on the subject. He told RTL/ntv that it was quite possible that Germany would have to resort to nuclear energy for a prolonged period due to the energy crisis: “It’s not a matter of many years, but it We may have to get used to the idea that we will still need nuclear power in 2024,” added the FDP politician. Likewise, the leader of the FDP’s parliamentary group, Christian Dürr, believes that extending the life of the three remaining nuclear power plants is also a matter of European solidarity. “It is not just Germany that is facing a serious energy crisis, but the whole of Europe,” he told the Dpa news agency.
So far the SPD and, even more so, the Greens, from which Robert Habeck and Steffi Lemke also come, were fiercely opposed to it. But like the recent statement by Olaf Scholz, the Social Democratic Chancellor, and the statement by Robert Habeck, there are now signs of a slight relaxation of the doctrine.
Technical and legal feasibility
However, the project turned out to be very tricky. The government should decide on the feasibility of the operation in the coming weeks based on new expertise in progress which includes “stress tests” of the plants. Because the question is not only political, but also technical… Some plant operators are worried about the fuels, which would then have to be changed quickly, and about the last maintenances which have not been carried out with a view to a closing.
No worries, according to TÜV, the official certification body for plant safety. The certifier had previously estimated that the continued operation of the plant will not pose a safety risk. According to him, even plants that have already been shut down could quickly be restarted safely: “These installations are among the safest and most technically efficient plants that exist in the world. They were and still are in excellent condition”, said the organization’s CEO, Joachim Bühler, in a recent interview with German media.
Finally, there is also the question of energy interest. Robert Habeck has had the opportunity to repeat it several times, the contribution of maintaining these three power stations in terms of electricity supply is, according to him, low. The expertise carried out by Berlin will have to resolve this point. The hypothetical contribution of the three plants closed last year by Germany must also be quantified.
After the technical obstacles, another fear is that of legal proceedings. The association Environmental Action Germany (DUH) said in a press release that “if the extension of the operation of nuclear power plants were to take place beyond December 31, 2022”, the association will try to “put an end to it by court if necessary. Its chief executive, Sascha Müller-Kraenner, went so far as to state that “life extension advocates are playing Russian roulette with personal safety.” An economic, ideological battle which could also become legal if the operation of German nuclear power plants were to be prolonged.