Nick Reynolds and his colleague Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) see several signs that Russian forces have changed after the first year of the large-scale war of aggression in Ukraine, they write in a recent analysis.
It’s bad news for the Ukrainian side.
— It means a difficult challenge for the Ukrainians, says Reynolds.
From the clumsy battalion tactical groups, Russia has now divided itself into different infantry groupings with different tasks.
Several types of infantry
A group of “disposable” infantry make smaller attacks to either spot Ukrainian fire positions which specialist infantry then target, or weaknesses in the defense to prepare for larger attacks. A third type of infantry concentrates on holding its own defensive lines.
Russian engineering forces have “proved to be one of the strongest branches of the Russian military,” the analysts write, saying they build various concrete-reinforced anti-aircraft defenses and bunkers, as well as anti-tank barriers and advanced minelaying.
“These defenses present major tactical challenges to Ukrainian offensive efforts,” writes Rusi.
Similarly, Russian armored units are rarely used to break through the lines, but more to shell Ukrainian positions from point to point with indirect fire. This makes them harder to knock out with hand-held anti-tank weapons. The Russians have also gotten better at hiding the vehicles.
Russian artillery has also been forced to make changes, among other things because the Ukrainian side knocked out ammunition stocks. Nowadays, the artillery cooperates with drone units to direct the fire. Artillery has also gotten better at firing from multiple locations at once, then quickly regrouping to make countermeasures more difficult.
10,000 drones a month
The Russian air defense has also “significantly increased its effectiveness” and in connection with the units specialized in electronic warfare, 10,000 Ukrainian drones are being shot down a month. Russia is also said to have cracked Ukraine’s 256-bit encryption, allowing them to listen to much of the Ukrainian side’s radio traffic.
But even if the Russian side has improved, it also has “problems with anticipating new threats”. So if the Ukrainian side manages to fight dynamically, then Russian units risk “quickly losing their coordination”.
How a Ukrainian counter-offensive will go, Reynolds does not dare to speculate.
— There will be battles of attrition, there will be attacks against fixed defensive positions at some level. So it will be difficult, he tells CNBC.