RIGA Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO processes progressed so quickly last spring that Russia barely had time to start systematically spreading disinformation against the membership.
This is what the director of Stratcom COE of NATO’s strategic communication center, the military association, assessed to Yelle Jānis Sarts.
– In the early stages of the NATO processes, we did not observe many attempts to influence. Our assessment is that they didn’t have the time and resources at the time, says Sārts.
Recently, however, the situation has changed, when Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO applications have been stuck in Hungary’s and Turkey’s nagging. Russia has noticed an opportunity for wider information influence.
– We can say that it is partly theirs [disinformaation] its ecosystem has begun to focus on NATO membership, especially recently, Sārts says, referring to the Kremlin’s influence by “ecosystem” as a propaganda machine.
Stratcom COE is not part of the command structure of the military alliance NATO, but operates in Latvia as an independent research institute. At Stratcom, the development of Russian disinformation has been monitored for years.
Last week in Riga in the seminar (you switch to another service) Stratcom presented the results of its latest research on Russian disinformation.
According to Sārts, Russian disinformation in the West was quite ineffective last year. The Russian state media were not properly prepared for the major attack on Ukraine, and especially not for the prolongation of the war of aggression.
However, as the frontal movements of the war have slowed down, Russia has been able to get its huge propaganda machine to spread the Kremlin’s message more smoothly.
– I believe that they have reorganized after the initial surprise, says Sārts.
– Unlike in the first months of the war, they have started to use the networks under their influence again. They now have a long-term strategy again.
According to Sārts, the effectiveness of Russia’s information influence should still not be exaggerated.
– The data is quite convincing that their disinformation is not particularly effective in Europe. For the most part, adapting the disinformation hasn’t helped them much.
Sārts says that Russia’s greatest success in influencing information is that it has succeeded in its goal of making the West wary of providing armed aid to Ukraine.
– If there has been one success, it is this one, Sārts estimates.
Disinformation is being spread on Telegram
According to Sārts, the main channel of disinformation spread by Russia is currently the Telegram application.
Developed in Russia, Telegram is a popular messaging app that is not directly under the control of the Russian government. However, the Russian state media has wanted to take over Telegram’s airspace by increasing the spread of propaganda on the application’s various channels, as many read their news directly from Telegram.
Also, a large part of the communication of the Ukrainian government takes place on Telegram, which has made the application the most important battleground of the information warfare of the Ukrainian war.
According to Sārts, Russia is investing in Telegram, because false information also flows to the West through it.
– We claim that Telegram is now the cornerstone of Russian disinformation. It is the channel through which disinformation from Russia travels to Western social media, says Sārts.
Russia is trying to make NATO countries quarrel with each other
According to Sārts, in the disinformation about Finland’s and Sweden’s membership in NATO, Russia focuses on portraying Finland and Sweden to the Russian public as states that do not have their own will, but are controlled by NATO and the United States as they please.
At the same time, however, Finland and Sweden are blamed for destroying relations with Russia.
– That they ruined a relationship that worked well before and they have to pay the price for it and so on, Sārts describes.
However, Sārts does not consider this disinformation aimed at the Russian public to be particularly significant. Instead, he is worried about Russia’s ability to incite internal disputes in NATO countries.
– I think it is more dangerous that events within the countries, especially in Sweden, are used to create discord among the allies in their attitude towards Finland and Sweden, says Sārts.
According to Sārts, in its disinformation, Russia is more of a reaction to events in Western countries than a party that creates topics of conversation itself.
– I would not go so far as to say that Russia would create different situations in Western countries. They stir up events within the countries and have an impact through this.
Concern about disinformation in the global south
More than Western countries, Sārts is worried about Russia’s role in the information war outside Western countries, in the so-called countries of the global south.
Global South refers to countries with a lower income level than Western countries, which are mainly located in Asia, Africa and Latin America. In these regions, several countries have not condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine.
– We have to understand that even though this is a regional war, in the field of information space this is a global war. Different narratives of the war are being promoted globally, says Sārts.
– In the Global South, Ukraine and Western countries have not fared particularly well. It is precisely there that Russia has had success.
According to Sārts, Russia has invested in spreading disinformation especially in Africa, where Russia has been adept at exploiting the already existing suspicion of Western countries.
In its communication aimed at the Global South, Russia is estimated to have learned especially from China, which has been more active than the West in increasing cooperation outside Western countries for years.
However, Sārts questions the fact that Russia would have gained an advantage only by increasing its own resources. In his opinion, the West needs to look in the mirror.
– We in the West have basically not been interested in talking with the Global South. This has been a collective mistake.
You can discuss the topic until 23:00 on February 10, 2023.
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