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Ukrainian soldiers rest at the front in Zaporizhzhya in July 2023.
1 / 3Photo: Libkos/AP/TT
The hope of a Ukrainian victory fades as military support is delayed. Two years into the war, the situation on the battlefield speaks increasingly in Russia’s favor.
– It is difficult for Ukraine to fight without more support from the West, says war scientist Ilmari Käihkö.
Russia boasts of triumphs at the front, increases its weapons production and, according to its own statement, can mobilize hundreds of thousands more soldiers.
Ukraine is seeking frozen US billions, complaining about non-delivery of weapons from the West and struggling with morale among civilians and soldiers.
– It is very difficult right now. Over time, Ukraine has become militarily weaker and Russia stronger. Russia has increased its production of materiel at the same time as aid to Ukraine has decreased, says Ilmari Käihkö, war scientist at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
Russian confidence
Ukraine’s retreat from the hotly contested Avdijivka has given Russia a confidence boost, say analysts – both on the battlefield and in Moscow’s corridors of power. President Vladimir Putin called it a “complete success” that must be built on. Since then, Russian military has besieged several smaller villages in the area.
It is possible that Putin is showing weakness, says Käihkö.
– Currently, Ukraine does not have the capacity for large-scale offensives – the question is whether they can even defend their own positions. It would be strange if the Russians didn’t try to exploit it.
Five times more
The West has a couple of months to scale up support for Ukraine, says Käihkö. In the summer, many predict a Russian offensive.
Manpower and materiel are Ukraine’s two major problems.
– It is said that Ukraine can fire 2,000 grenades a day and Russia 10,000. These are grim numbers. In addition, Ukraine really needs to mobilize more soldiers.
Putin’s advantage is that he knows what his forces have at his disposal by the summer or a year from now. For Ukraine, it is uncertain.
“Ukraine pays the price”
This weekend, the Minister of Defense claimed that half of the promised arms deliveries from the West had been delayed. At the same time, the US Congress is arguing over a breathtaking $60 billion aid package for Ukraine that has been met with a cold hand in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
– This is what affects Ukraine’s opportunities the most right now. It is the United States that has the ability to help militarily, but they seem to lack the will, says Käihkö.
Even if the package is hammered out now, it will likely be months before the actual support lands on the battlefield.
– If Putin’s plan is to continue the war until the West gives up, then it is the West’s failure if that happens – not Ukraine’s. But it is Ukraine that pays the price.