Russia may retaliate against sanctions by nationalizing passenger cars leased from abroad. Most of them are aircraft of Russian airlines, writes ‘s foreign journalist Mika Mäkeläinen.
The West has already had time suspect (switch to another service) The effectiveness of economic sanctions against Russia. However, aviation sanctions give a good idea of how robust a weapon can be at best.
They work in many ways. First, the sanctions put an end to Russian flights to Europe and North America, the largest markets.
Second, the sanctions ended spare parts sales (you move to another service) To Russia. The majority of the aircraft used by Russian airlines are manufactured by Boeing and Airbus, and parts are not made in Russia.
interviewed by Russia an expert who is very familiar with civil aviation does not believe in such a rapid downtime. He cannot appear by name because he is in a key position in the industry and should not comment on the impact of sanctions.
The expert estimates that, in principle, spare parts should be available for three months. In practice, however, stock often means only a maintenance contract, ie the confidence that a spare part will be obtained when it is needed. Now, however, it is no longer available.
According to the expert, for example, computer programs in Russia are updated every four weeks. Without updates, machines will freeze at some point.
– They don’t immediately drop from the sky, but the systems start to limp, the expert says.
Third, Russian airlines do not usually own their own machines, but are rented. For tax reasons, the most popular domicile for leasing companies is Ireland.
There are more than 500 passenger planes leased from abroad, which is a huge asset, about ten billion dollars. With sanctions leases (move to another service) must be stopped by 28 March, according to the EU.
The payment of rent is likely to end because payment transactions between Russia and the West will no longer work. The planes should now be returned, but Russian airlines may not agree.
It may also be impossible to return the planes in practice, because due to sanctions and counter-sanctions, they cannot be flown between Russia and the rest of Europe.
– Then the cannibalization of the planes starts, because they have no use for such a large fleet, says the Finnish commercial pilot . He, too, cannot appear by name because of the sensitivity of the matter.
With cannibalization, the pilot means that the machines will be dismantled as spare parts to keep the rest of the aircraft in good condition.
Fourth, pay transactions sanctions make it difficult to use, refuel and refuse Russian aircraft maintenance (you switch to another service) also where they still get to fly.
In this respect, however, both the expert interviewed by and the commercial pilot believe that Russia will pull a longer streak. According to the expert, people are “creative under pressure.”
– Russia’s resilience is quite exceptional, says the commercial pilot. According to him, the planes will continue to fly, even if they are no longer airworthy in principle.
According to him, Russia can handle payments in the dark, for example in cash.
One stick figure could also be that a Russian airline would set up an airline behind the scenes in China, for example, to circumvent sanctions.
Among other restrictions Aeroflot’s ticket sales will become more difficult immediately, as Amadeus and Saber, which operate international ticketing systems, are deleting (moving to another service) its systems.
According to the expert, Aeroflot has already lost at least half of its customers and revenue, which could already topple the company.
Airlines have their own chapter, they have more use. And after all, the country is big, so domestic flights can continue.
In any case, Russian passenger airlines appear to be in escort. The timing of many companies’ swan flights is difficult to predict, but sanctions make resuming flights long-term very difficult (switch to another service).
The problem remains that even if Russian airlines collapse, the Russian president Vladimir Putin the war itself will not end. His power doesn’t depend on middle-class travel comfort or bonus points.
This analysis is the ninth in a series that News continues during the Russian invasion. We publish a brief but in-depth and context-sensitive analysis every day at about 12 noon.
You can discuss the topic until Saturday, March 5 at 11 p.m.