Russia will launch its offensive in Ukraine in the coming weeks, sometime before February 2, several Russian sources said, according to the US Institute for the study of war.
According to the sources, the large-scale offensive will begin when the Ukrainian forces defending Avdiivka and Kherson become “exhausted” – and when the ground in southern and eastern Ukraine freezes to ice.
ISW cites, among others, the Russian literary critic and alternative historian Sergey Pereslegin, who argues that the Russians should be more concerned about starting their offensive at the wrong time or making the same “mistake” that Ukraine made during its 2023 counteroffensive, than about a renewed Ukrainian offensive investment in 2024.
Pereslegin also expresses concern that Russia does not have enough manpower to carry out the large-scale offensive effort he expects.
Too few men for breakthrough
Other prominent Russian military bloggers write at the same time that the number of Russian soldiers on the front line is enough to carry out local tactical maneuvers but probably not for significant breakthroughs on the front, states ISW.
According to several assessors, it is likely that no major offensives will be carried out in 2024 – from any side – as both Russia and Ukraine are in great need of military rearmament.
“Russia lacks the equipment and trained manpower to launch a strategic offensive until the spring of 2025, at the earliest,” Michael Clark, former director general at the Royal United Services Institute, has stated in a forecast for the coming year.