RUSSIA – UKRAINE. Why did Vladimir Putin decide to launch a “military operation” in Ukraine? The Russian invasion attempt is the result of long months of tension between Russia and its neighbor. Back to the distant origins and the immediate causes of the war.
The crisis between Russia and Ukraine took an important turn on Thursday, February 24, 2022 with the declaration of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the first bombings and the entry into Ukrainian soil of Russian armed forces from the east, south via Crimea and to the north via Belarus, an ally of Moscow. This entry into the war is the result of long months of tension between the two countries, Russia not accepting Ukraine’s rapprochement with Western democracies and even less its desire to join NATO, an unacceptable point for Vladimir Putin which sees it as a threat to its borders.
On July 12, 2021, Vladimir Putin publishes a long text on the Kremlin website in which he looks back on the history that has linked Russia and Ukraine for centuries. In his writings, the Russian president recalls that “the Russians and the Ukrainians formed only one people” with regard to the history between the two nations. For him, the independence taken by the neighboring country in 1991 “is our great misfortune and our great common tragedy”. A feeling reinforced with the reiterated will, in August 2021, of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski to integrate NATO, and therefore to move away a little more from Russia. “I cannot admit that we are not proposing an action plan for Ukraine’s accession to NATO. The longer we wait, the more countries hesitate on this issue, and the more it confirms the influence of Russia on States at the economic, political level, as well as in terms of personal relations”, he declared to several media, including Release.
During the fall, Russia deploys around 100,000 troops to several locations on its border with Ukraine. A first threat? On December 17, 2021, Russia made public two treaty proposals it wanted to sign with NATO. A meeting between Russian and American leaders and representatives of the organization is organised. Vladimir Putin demands several things from his interlocutors. The main one: a commitment not to expand NATO any further and not to start any new membership process, especially with Ukraine. Moreover, the Russian president wants the United States to commit to no longer establishing military bases and activities in Ukraine, but also in various states of Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia, i.e. former territories of the USSR. Requirements that Russia wants to enforce because it feels threatened by the West and fears for its safety. By disposing, at the same time, of his military forces to encircle Ukraine, Vladimir Putin then poses a barely disguised ultimatum.
However, on January 26, 2022, the United States sent its response, refusing to commit not to expand NATO and to definitively close the door to Ukraine’s membership. On the other hand, the Americans are paving the way for discussions to discuss the presence of strategic missiles and nuclear weapons in Europe and have proposed “the possibility of reciprocal transparency measures with regard to our military positions as well as measures to improve confidence in this concerning military exercises and maneuvers in Europe”. Faced with the main refusal, additional men are deployed by Vladimir Putin near Ukraine until mid-February, brandishing the threat of an invasion of Ukraine, even if the Kremlin has always refused this assertion. Important diplomatic negotiations involving the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Ukraine and Russia were carried out. But on the ground, numerous bombings, attributed by each camp to the other, reinforce the fear of military action. The February 21 announcement by Vladimir Putin of the recognition of pro-Russian separatist territories in Ukraine paved the way for a military intervention by Russia in its neighbor, officially declared by the Russian President on February 24, an announcement followed by the sending of several missiles and the entry of the Russian armed forces on Ukrainian soil.
What is the origin of the war between Russia and Ukraine?
Russia and Ukraine have a special bond. Ukraine was indeed one of the entities constituting the USSR, until the dissolution of the latter in 1991 and the proclamation of Ukrainian independence. However, Ukraine retains ties with Russia. In 2013, while a pro-Russian president was in office (Viktor Yanukovych), a revolution broke out in the country and ousted the head of state. In repression, Vladimir Putin annexes Crimea, a Ukrainian territory. In the country, pro and anti-Russian clash. Ukrainian separatists favorable to the neighboring country then took control, with Russian support, of part of the Dombass region, a coal basin made up of the oblasts (the equivalent of the regions in France) of Donetsk and Lugansk (in red on the map).
They then self-proclaimed the People’s Republic of Donetsk and that of Lugansk on about a third of each oblast. Historically, these are territories in which the Russian language and culture are steeped. It is therefore a subdivision of Donetsk and Luhansk oblast. The red dividing line on the OSCE map marks the boundary between pro-Russian separatists to the east and Ukrainian government-ruled territories to the west. To the east, the DPRs and the LPR are separated by their historical border, in grey.
Map from the OSCE daily report on the Ukraine monitoring mission (page 12)
After the war, the Minsk agreements were signed in 2015 between Russia and Ukraine, under the mediation of France and Germany, supposed to act a ceasefire, never really respected. If, for a few years, the white flag had been waved despite everything, Vladimir Putin suddenly deployed tens of thousands of men at various points on the border between Russia and Ukraine, in the fall of 2021. A worrying maneuver explained , in particular, by the political will of Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, to join NATO. Which, for Vladimir Putin, is “unacceptable”. The boss of the Kremlin indeed judges that “Russia has been stripped” with the independence of Ukraine. From there to wanting to get their hands on the country? With his green light for the invasion, that seems to be the case.