In one year since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s oil revenues have plunged by 42%, weighed down by the effect of G7 and EU sanctions, which have limited the price of oil to $60 since December 2022. barrel of Russian crude oil. This figure is far from trivial, since more than a third of the country’s budget revenue is based on the export of oil and natural gas resources.
The weight of this decline weighs considerably on the financial health of the Russian state: “We estimate that in February Russia took in 11.6 billion dollars, compared to 14.3 billion in January and nearly 20 billion a year before”, details the monthly oil report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
If these figures are enough to reassure international observers who feared that the international embargo is too weak to have an impact on the Russian economy, the sanctions do not stop the country’s oil giants in their pursuit of profit.
According to information from FinancialTimes, which relies on customs data that he was able to consult with a group of academics, many Russian oil companies have found systems allowing them to circumvent the 60 dollar cap. For this, some use a system of “intermediary and accounts outside Russia” to sell their barrels, reports the Moscow correspondent of the financial newspaper The echoes.
An $8 billion tax hike
At the end of February, Vladimir Putin had already called on Russian companies not to hide behind offshore structures and to put patriotism before profit, thus revealing rivalries between the Kremlin and oil producers over potential additional revenue from sales.
Today, to bail out the state coffers, the government has therefore decided to increase taxes for oil companies that manage to sell their barrels above the ceiling. The objective of this tax maneuver “will be to take 5% of excess profits this year”, explains The echoes.
For this “the Kremlin will switch from April to an indicator indexed to Brent, the international benchmark for crude oil, for the calculation of taxes on oil exports”, which amounts to reducing the rebate of Russian taxes on oil market, continues the British daily. A very technical tax measure, which should allow to generate the considerable sum of 600 billion rubles of additional annual income. Or about 8 billion dollars (7.3 billion euros).
Despite this, “the Russian state, accustomed before its military offensive to surpluses, could this year suffer a deficit of 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP)”, points out Les Echos, based on a recent analysis by the European rating agency Scope. The World Bank predicts a drop in the country’s GDP of 3.3%, and the OECD a drop of 5.6% in its most unfavorable scenario.