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Full Screentas Nilsson, Head of Must. File image. Photo: Pontus Lundahl/TT
Sweden’s military intelligence service assesses that Russian hybrid warfare has become more offensive and risk -taking.
At the same time, a ceasefire in Ukraine can give Russia time to increase its military ability.
The military intelligence and security service (MUST) makes the assessments in its annual overview for 2024.
“We live in a dangerous time – and we will do that for the foreseeable time,” writes Must chief Thomas Nilsson.
The hybrid threat has changed towards a “increased risk -taking from the Russian side”. Must also highlights “new methods”, such as through unqualified agents performing attacks in European countries.
A number of events in Europe can be linked to Russian authorities and special services. It is about preparation and attempts at sabotage, increased intelligence gathering, cyber infringement and impact operations.
The purpose is often to create political split and to influence the West’s support for Ukraine.
At the same time, MUST makes the assessment “that the threat from an armed attack individually directed to Sweden has decreased” after the soda.
Russia is also not considered to be able to carry out another large -scale military operation in the immediate area as long as the war in Ukraine is ongoing to the present extent.
According to Must, Russia is preparing to meet NATO’s increased activities the region.
This means that Russian forces in the immediate area, not least the Navy and Air Force forces, through its activities, can “increase the risk of mistakes that lead to incidents and security policy crises that can include NATO, including Swedish military units and civilian vessels,” writes Must.