A generation separates them. He, born in the middle of World War II, spent half his life in an America in the midst of the Cold War. His younger sister, born at the dawn of the hippie wave, was only 25 years old on the evening of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, two visions of the world. In the shadow of the Democratic president, seasoned in foreign policy, his number 2 followed an accelerated training on the international scene, shaken by the war in Ukraine. By chance of History, Kamala Harris is the last high-ranking official to have met Volodymyr Zelensky one-on-one before the Russian invasion, on the sidelines of the Munich Peace Conference, on February 19, 2022. Five days later, hundreds of tanks crossed the Russian-Ukrainian border.
The vice president, who is about to be sworn in as a candidate for the White House, has met with Volodymyr Zelensky six times and has represented the United States at the Munich Peace Conference for the past three years. There, she recently reiterated Washington’s “ironclad” commitment to NATO’s Article 5 on mutual self-defense among NATO allies. On June 15, she attended the Summit for Peace in Ukraine in Obburgen, Switzerland, and reaffirmed the United States’ “unwavering” support for the Ukrainian people who are “defending themselves against Russia’s brutal aggression.”
Everything indicates that she will remain, like her mentor, a convinced Atlanticist. But her election would also mark the end of an era. “Joe Biden has lived and breathed American foreign policy for decades. Kamala Harris for only 3 years. So she doesn’t carry the same legacy and doesn’t have the same sense of America’s role in the world as someone Biden’s age,” observes Charles Kupchan, a professor at Georgetown University and former adviser to Barack Obama.
“Biden comes from a generation for whom the nuclear confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union was the duality that shaped world politics,” says Constanze Stelzenmueller, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, an American think tank based in Washington. “For the next generation, the key idea is that America is no longer the dominant power, in a world marked by strategic competition and economic interdependence. This software takes into account the importance of alliances with Europe and Asia, but also expects more from these partners.”
A new era
The major priorities of the Biden years are likely to remain, however. “His staff comes from the centrist internationalist wing of the Democratic Party,” says Charles Kupchan. “That’s why I expect some continuity.” His national security adviser, Philip Gordon, a French speaker, wrote his thesis in 1993 on France’s Gaullist foreign policy legacy. A specialist in European and Middle Eastern affairs, he is described by his peers as an experienced, Atlanticist adviser with a certain pragmatism.
In addition to support for Ukraine, which will remain conditional on the balance of power in Congress, the vice president is taking the same approach as Joe Biden on China, between confrontation and cooperation on certain issues – such as the fight against climate change. Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden at the ASEAN summit in 2023 in Jakarta, her third trip to Southeast Asia since her inauguration, where she visited more countries than anywhere else on the globe. “Within our administration, Kamala Harris has been an advocate for strengthening our engagement in Southeast Asia – and she has flown miles to prove it – recognizing that our work in this region is essential to our own security and our economic growth,” President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told the AP at the time.
In 2021, during her first trip to the region, the vice president denounced China’s “bullying” attitude towards its neighbors. Since her inauguration, Harris has only formally met with Chinese President Xi Jinping once, at the APEC summit (the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum) in November 2022.
“Californian touch”
“Harris will certainly be part of the ‘pivot to Asia’ initiated in the 2010s by Barack Obama, confirms Jacob Heilbrunn. She will not abandon Europe, but she will be keen to further strengthen Washington’s relations with its Asian allies.” Her attachment to California, her home region, may have something to do with it. “Kamala Harris was born in Oakland and was immersed in Californian politics all her youth,” recalls Ian Lesser, vice-president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “However, California has its own prism on American foreign policy. Don’t forget that this American state is the world’s 5th largest economy! Due to its geographical position, it is more focused on the Asia-Pacific region and on relations with Mexico.”
If she reaches the Oval Office, Kamala Harris will have a thorny issue to manage on her eastern front: the Israeli-Palestinian war. “Her advisor, Philip Gordon, is known for his critical positions towards Israel. The climate will therefore be different in the Middle East,” predicts Jacob Heilbrunn, editor-in-chief of The National Interesta bimonthly foreign policy review. In 2014, as Barack Obama’s Middle East aide, he delivered a scathing speech in Tel Aviv. “How will Israel have peace if it does not want to demarcate a border, end the occupation and allow Palestinian sovereignty, security and dignity?” he declared at the Israeli Peace Conference organized by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
Two years later, he wrote a note for the Council on Foreign Relations: “It is illusory to imagine that Israel can continue to prosper, expand its regional ties, avoid further violence and remain a stable and tolerant Jewish democracy if current trends in the West Bank and Gaza continue, ending any prospect of a two-state solution.” Positions that echo the criticism expressed today by Kamala Harris towards the Hebrew state, at war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Israel: the turning point?
In March, Kamala Harris said Israel was not doing enough to prevent a “humanitarian catastrophe.” On July 24, the vice president was conspicuous by her absence at the Capitol, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the U.S. Congress. The vice president preferred to maintain her planned trip to Indiana to attend an event organized by a historically African-American sorority, Zeta Phi Beta. During a meeting the next day with Netanyahu, she did not mince her words. “What has happened in Gaza over the last nine months is devastating,” she declared after recalling the United States’ “unwavering commitment” to Israel and its “right to defend itself.” “We cannot look away from these tragedies, we cannot afford to be indifferent. And I will not remain silent.”
“If Kamala Harris shows more sympathy for the Palestinian cause than many others in the Democratic Party – starting with Joe Biden – I do not expect a radical change in policy. The United States has always been Israel’s steadfast ally and that is not going to change,” tempers Jeff Hawkins, former US ambassador and associate researcher at Iris, who also highlights the electoral stakes for the Democrats: “There is a high concentration of Arab-Americans in the state of Michigan. But this is a swing state [état-clé] that she must win.”
Abroad too, her handling of the Israeli-Palestinian issue will be closely scrutinized, particularly in the so-called “Global South” states, where her profile could earn her points. “The election of Kamala Harris, born to parents of Indian and Jamaican origin, would be spectacular and very noticeable in this part of the world, believes Ian Lesser. People will take note: yes, the United States is (still) capable of reflecting its diversity at the highest level.” In the meantime, Kamala Harris has a card to play with American voters, facing a Donald Trump who has suddenly “aged” after the withdrawal of his rival, Joe Biden. “A woman 20 years younger than the Republican candidate, black, Caribbean and South Asian, the daughter of immigrants, a prosecutor, self-confident and with a sense of humor: that is the greatest possible provocation for Donald Trump!” concludes Constanze Stelzenmueller. Kamala Harris knows it. And she savors her moment.
.