Russia now has to allocate its limited resources, says a strategy teacher from the National Defense University.
12:01•Updated 12:34
The speed of Ukraine’s counterattack in the direction of Kharkiv has stunned many experts – and most obviously Russia as well.
– Russia’s retreat has not been systematic, but can be called an escape, says the strategy teacher at the National Defense University Antti Pihlajamaa In an interview with Ylen aam and radio Ykkösaamu.
Pihlajamaa adds that when Russia retreated, it also lost critical equipment, such as anti-artillery radars, in the hands of the Ukrainians.
– This supports the fact that the events of the last few days have turned the situation in favor of Ukraine, at least regionally, Pihlajamaa continues.
How was Russia caught by surprise?
Ukraine misled Russia by communicating for a long time about a counterattack further south in the Kherson region. Russia took the bait and moved its troops towards Kherson. Then Ukraine surprised Kharkiv in the direction.
Also according to Pihlajamaa, Ukraine’s rapid progress speaks for the fact that it has not had to face very heavy battles while advancing.
Pihlajamaa also sees the Harkov situation as a connection to the beginning of the entire war of aggression.
– The essential question is that Russia decided to attack in so many directions at once in February. At the moment, Russia is paying its taxes, Pihlajamaa says.
Read more: “Total fool’s errand” – Pekka Toveri tells how Ukraine carried out its counterattack
Has Ukraine really progressed so quickly?
Ukraine has reportedly regained dozens of villages and large areas. On Sunday, the president Volodymyr Zelenskyi confirmed that the strategically important Izjum and Kupjansk have been recaptured.
British Military Intelligence according to the most recent estimate (you will switch to another service) Russia might even be withdrawing from the Kharkiv area.
According to Pihlajamaa, the details of each individual city or population center will be detailed only later, but he describes the area reclaimed by Ukraine as “quite large”.
– It also includes very significant items. The capture of Kupyansk will probably hinder Russia’s attack in the direction of eastern Ukraine in the future.
Is there a tipping point going on?
According to Pihilajamaa, Russia has been a clear underdog in recent days and has to admit that to itself.
– It does not mean that the war is over.
– There are still many twists and turns ahead, and so far Ukraine’s counterattack has been seen primarily in one direction.
Right now, according to Pihlajamaa, however, Ukraine has the initiative in its hands. According to Pihlajamaa, the progress of the situation now depends a lot on whether Ukraine has fresh strength to continue the counterattack and whether Russia can organize its ranks.
– It would be critical for Ukraine to be able to keep Russia on a reactive position, one step behind. This could open up more opportunities for counterattacks.
What is the attacker’s next move?
According to Pihilajamaa, Russia now has to take better account of Ukraine’s ability to strike quickly and unexpectedly.
– Russia now has to choose where it wants to use its increasingly limited resources.
According to Pihlajamaa, we can also expect revenge attacks and surprises from Russia.
– The Zaporizhia nuclear power plant can be one trump card that Russia, which is drifting into an increasingly difficult situation, is trying to exploit in some way. Time will tell, says Pihlajamaa in Ykkösaamu.