Ukraine said Thursday that Russia has stepped up its hostilities across the eastern and southern fronts.
28.4. 19: 03 • Updated April 28. 19:15
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been going on for more than two months.
Russia withdrew from the vicinity of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, in early April and concentrated its forces in eastern Ukraine. Russia has also stepped up its military action on the southern front.
asked a graduate officer at the National Defense College Antti Pihlajamaata to assess what the fighting situation is like now and what Russia can achieve in the near future in the war.
Russia is making progress in the East – but without a major breakthrough
Russia is currently attacking eastern Ukraine in many directions, but not very quickly. No major breakthroughs have taken place, and Russia has not taken over new large areas of land.
It seems that Russia is trying to move forward in the East in the spirit of the consumer war, says research officer Pihlajamaa.
In a war of consumption, the intent is to inflict such great losses on the enemy that it can no longer continue to fight effectively.
According to Pihlajamaa, it is difficult to say whether this is a chosen tactic or a compulsion of circumstances when the power is not enough for anything else.
– Jos [Venäjän] If the activity continues like this, one can anticipate that the situation in the East may not turn around quickly, Pihlajamaa says.
Russia has brought significantly more troops to the Donbass region in recent weeks. After the second phase of the attack was said to have begun after Easter, Russian troops have advanced south of the city of Izjum, west of the city of Donetsk and north of the cities.
According to Pihlajamaa, Russia seems to have achieved the most in the area of the city of Izjum, which is located in the Kharkiv region, outside the Donbas. From Izjum, Russian troops have advanced in several directions in recent days, toward the cities of Sloviansk and Barvinkov.
It is unclear whether the goal is to launch a larger blockade of Ukrainian troops, Pihlajamaa says.
– In any case, there is an effort to move south. If Russia can do that, it will secure more and more control of the Donetsk region.
In the West, it is estimated that Russia is trying to achieve something in Ukraine that it could present by the so-called Victory Day. The day of victory in Russia is said to be the commemoration of the end of the Second World War on May 9.
– If the situation does not change in a week and a half, it is unlikely that by the day of victory, the Donbas will be completely under Russian control, Pihlajamaa says.
Ukraine in the East has mostly repelled the attacks. However, it has its best troops in the East and experience of fighting since 2014. The terrain and conditions are familiar to Ukrainians.
Russia, on the other hand, has troops in eastern Ukraine that have been fighting for two months and have been stationed in the Ukrainian environment for weeks before. It is consuming, Pihlajamaa says.
– In terms of human resources, Russia is on a declining curve than Ukraine, which has been able to set up more troops and suffered fewer losses during the war.
It is not known whether Ukraine has the intentions or the ability to take the initiative and prevent Russia from moving forward.
The attack on the south binds Russian troops
Russia claimed on Wednesday it had taken over the entire Kherson region in southern Ukraine, according to Reuters.
According to Ukraine, Russia is now attacking Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.
– Russia has conquered southern Ukraine to the area between Kherson and the city of Mykolaiv. The front line has been between Kherson and Mykolaiv for several weeks. To the west of it is still in Ukraine’s possession, Pihlajamaa says.
Ukraine has sought counter-attacks in the region and to some extent also succeeded.
According to Pihlajamaa, the possession of the territories in southern Ukraine binds Russian troops.
In Ukraine, the authorities warn that Russia will hold a fake referendum in the Kherson region to establish a so-called People’s Republic of the Donetsk and Luhansk types.
Pihlajamaa says that it is from the point of view of the establishment of a virtual republic that the administrative borders of Kherson are important for Russia.
– In addition, the Dnieper River flows into the Black Sea via Kherson, which Russia certainly wants to keep to itself.
Pihlajamaa estimates that by occupying the Kherson region, Russia wants to secure the position of Crimea, as it is one of the most important regions for Russia.
– If Ukraine were to break into the Kherson region again, the Crimean peninsula would be more vulnerable to Ukrainian action.
Fighting also continues from southern Ukraine to the north. There is a front line between Zaporizhia and the city of Donetsk, which Russia is trying to push north.
However, according to Pihlajamaa, Russia has not made rapid progress there and is trying to consume Ukraine little by little with heavy fire.
In Transnistria, which belongs to Moldova but is pro-Russian, there have been a number of attacks in recent days, the causes and purpose of which have remained unclear.
Pihlajamaa doubts Russia’s ability to implement such a land connection, at least in the short term.
The battle at the steel plant in Mariupol continues
The battle for the coastal city of Mariupol has been followed in the west for weeks. At the Azovstal steel plant on the shores of the Sea of Azov, the battle continues.
According to various estimates, the plant is trapped by hundreds of civilians and Ukrainian soldiers, many of whom are wounded.
Russia has repeatedly demanded the surrender of Ukrainian soldiers, but these have not agreed to the request.
– They don’t really have a choice. It can be quite difficult for them to trust that if they surrendered, they would be treated very favorably, Pihlajamaa says.
Pihlajamaa points out that from Russia’s point of view, the siege of the factory area binds the troops, but it is easier than to start emptying the factory area from civilians and the forces defending it.
According to him, Russia is capable of firing on the region enough to be able to tie up Ukrainian troops there.
– If you don’t get any supplements there, then at this rate you will soon run out of food.
Governor of the Donetsk region Pavlo Kyrylenkon Russia does not allow the evacuation of wounded Ukrainian soldiers from the factory area.
According to Kyrylenko, Russia also does not allow the opening of humanitarian corridors in the region.
Russia wants to block arms supplies with attacks on western Ukraine
According to the news agency Reuters, the Russian Ministry of Defense has admitted that the attacks were intended to prevent foreign arms deliveries from entering the front.
According to research officer Pihlajamaa, it is quite likely that Russia will make more such attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure.
– From Russia’s point of view, it is more effective to try to influence routes and traffic hubs than to disrupt individual arms transports, Pihlajamaa says.
The attacks may be aimed at tying up Ukraine’s air defense so that it cannot be transferred to eastern Ukraine. Ukraine is constantly having to keep in mind that the western and central parts of the country can also be hit.
In addition, the attacks make it more difficult for civilians to move west and have a psychological impact.
– If it is known that attacks can come anywhere at any time, it will not make life easier for ordinary Ukrainians. It can be used to try to sow fear and crush the will to defend, Pihlajamaa says.
* You can discuss the topic until Friday, April 29, 2022 at 11 p.m.