Russia is deliberately hitting civilian targets, and it is a big risk for the state, says the researcher – “How long can the rest of the world look at this?”

There is no information on the intent of the Mariupol theater attack, but Russian attacks on civilian targets have clearly increased.

Docent of Military Sciences, University Lecturer Ilmari Käihkö In general, the Swedish National Defense College says that it is quite clear that Russia is deliberately hitting civilian targets, especially in Mariupol.

– A single attack may be damage, but at the same time on a larger scale it seems that Russia is deliberately destroying civilian targets. That is quite clear. In light of that knowledge, it is not surprising that such a blow has come.

The drama theater in the port city of Mariupol was aired on Wednesday. It is estimated that more than a thousand people have sought refuge in the theater. According to media reports, there were also children in the theater.

According to current information, it appears that at least most of those in the theater’s bomb shelter have survived.

According to the Mariupol City Council, the building was deliberately destroyed by Russian forces. Russia has denied bombing the theater. Information on the intent of the attack has not yet been confirmed.

“It is possible to aim accurately at a target with a precision weapon if desired, but in this case it is not possible to say with certainty whether this is the case,” says the lieutenant colonel. Jarmo Mattila About the National Defense College.

Satellite images taken by space technology company Maxar on Monday showed that the word “children” was written in Russian on both sides of the theater.

Researcher Ilmari Käihkö points out that there is no certainty whether the unit that may have intentionally struck the theater knew that there were civilians at the site.

– We do not know what Russian intelligence is like in Mariupol. How much do they know what’s going on in the city and are the attacking units getting intelligence? It is impossible to say from the outside.

Lieutenant Colonel Jarmo Mattila points out that the destruction of settlements can be carried out even if the intention is to strike the military forces in the city. Experts say there is no certainty as to how many military targets there are in Mariupol that could be bombed by Russia.

According to Ilmari Käihkö, it is known that Russia’s Precision Guided Munitions (PGM) are starting to decline, so it will have to resort to older weapons. They are less accurate. This has also been stated by the British Ministry of Defense.

– Then it can be assumed that when you hit the city, there will be more destruction to the targets that are not meant to be hit. It will very likely increase the number of civilian casualties.

In Mariupol, Russia has used modern precision missiles, but also artillery fire.

– It’s not necessarily terribly accurate, and the devastation is far more extensive. We have also seen that tanks have fired in a directional fire at residential buildings. Of course, we do not know if they were fired from the buildings. It is unlikely that Ukrainian-sourced videos will show it. We see a small part of the reality of the war, but not the big picture of the war, Käihkö ponders.

The capture of Mariupol would be strategically important for Russia as it would unite Russian forces in the south and east. It would effectively act as a land bridge to the Crimea.

Ilmari Käihkö, a docent in military sciences, believes that the destruction of the city and the increase in civilian attacks mean that Russia is in a hurry to surrender to Mariupol.

According to him, Russia’s attacks on civilian targets began as early as a few days after the war, when Russia realized that it would not achieve its goals with its original strategy. By terrorizing civilians, Russia is seeking to raise the price of war for Ukrainians and increase the chances of the Ukrainian regime giving up.

– There may be a situation where there is simply no other way to put the Ukrainian defenders on their knees.

Lieutenant Colonel Jarmo Mattila from the National Defense College says that Russia does not care whether the attacks hit civilians.

– With such activities, Russia is trying to collapse the will of the Ukrainians to defend their country, Mattila estimates.

However, there is a great danger for Russia in such a strategy.

– How long can the rest of the world watch this? The civilian emergency and the number of civilian casualties are growing and that is not the way the war should go. Yes, Russia will probably at some point think about the reactions of the rest of the world. Politically, this comes at a terrible price.

If the situation of civilians worsens, the political opinion of Western countries about intervening in the war may change. According to Käihkö, there may already be signs of this.

However, the idea has not received support from the West, on the contrary.

In practice, the situation would lead to the dropping of Russian fighter jets, ie warfare against Russia. That, in turn, would likely cause the war to spread.

– It has been estimated that Zelenskyi could declare that Russian planes do not have the right to use Ukrainian airspace and call on other countries to monitor it. It is estimated that this would not necessarily be terribly difficult legally. In the past, there has been no discussion of the possibility of such, but now there are beginning to be heard gravel sounds that this could be possible.

Jarmo Mattila from the National Defense College does not see such an alternative at all likely.

– The West has announced that it will not intervene, but that Ukraine itself must fight. The West supports Ukraine but does not take part in the war.