For a long time, Russia had been looking for a reason to break away from the agreement that enabled grain exports to the Black Sea, and the attack on the port of Sevastopol provided it, writes Russia correspondent Heikki Heiskanen.
MOSCOW Russia announced on Saturday that it will suspend compliance with the Black Sea grain export agreement.
Officially, the reason was Ukraine’s massive drone attack on Sevastopol. Russia says it targeted ships that secured the implementation of the agreement.
Black Sea grain shipments are one of the few things that Russia and Ukraine have been able to agree on since the Russian invasion in February, so the collapse of the agreement dims hopes for any kind of progress in diplomacy.
Russia and Ukraine signed The agreement brokered by the UN and Turkey in July. According to the agreement, Ukraine could export grain from three Black Sea ports.
Another part of the agreement was that sanctions hindering the export of Russian grain and fertilizers would be eased.
Thanks to the agreement, it has been possible to transport more than 9 million tons of corn, wheat, sunflower products, barley, rapeseed and soybeans from Ukrainian ports.
The agreement helped alleviate the rise in food prices around the world and thus ease the food crisis, which has severely weakened food security in poor and developing countries.
The agreement was due to expire on November 19, but the UN has hoped it could be extended. Now this hope seems to be crumbling.
The Russian leadership has been threatening for a long time to withdraw from the treaty and the attack on Sevastopol gave it a reason.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin has accused that a large part of grain transport has been directed to rich Europe instead of poor countries in the Middle East and Africa. However, the agreement does not specify where the ships should take the grain.
The accusations are probably part of Russia’s effort to shift the blame for the collapse of the agreement onto the shoulders of the West.
The reason for Russia’s stubbornness is that the benefits it has received have been modest, the analyst says Alexandra Prokopenko evaluate already in September. (you switch to another service)
Grain exports from Russia decreased in August–September, 22 percent from the previous year. The EU and the US have emphasized that the sanctions do not target the export of food and fertilizers, but banks, insurance companies and transport companies have still been reluctant to do any business related to Russia.
In addition, the strong ruble, export tariffs and a record harvest have weakened the profitability of grain exports.
According to Prokopenko, cutting off grain exports is one of the few levers that Russia can still use to put pressure on the West, when the hostilities in Ukraine are not going well and the EU’s natural gas situation is not as bleak as Russia would like.
Russia has struck against Ukraine’s energy production on the eve of winter, and cutting off grain exports in the Black Sea will make a bad dent in Ukraine’s economy.
Closing the Black Sea to grain transport takes away a significant part of foreign exchange earnings from Ukraine, threatens to raise the price of food on the world market again and accelerates inflation in Europe.
The countries of the Middle East and Africa suffered from a sharp rise in food prices even before Russia’s attack in Ukraine in February. The war has only worsened the global food crisis.
The Black Sea grain export agreement partially eased the situation, but now it seems that Russia is trying to tighten the screws again in order to get Ukraine and its western supporters to bend to their demands.
At the same time, the food crisis has by no means abated. UN Food and Agriculture Organization FAO and World Food Program WFP (you will switch to another service) already warned earlier in October that acute food insecurity will further worsen in 17 countries and 2 regions from October to January.
In international politics, Russia’s solution will probably strain its relations with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa.
Turkey hardly takes kindly to the collapse of the agreement it brokered, and in general the countries of the region are worried that the rise in food prices will trigger new unrest and instability.
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Read more:
The success of grain shipments from Ukraine is vital – read why on 12 August 2022
Russia and Ukraine signed agreements to secure grain transport – UN Secretary General: The light of hope now shines in the Black Sea 22 July 2022
Europe’s granary Ukraine also feeds drought-stricken North Africa – the war could raise the already high price of food 16 February 2022