The photo made the rounds on the social network Telegram, the main communication and debate platform for Russian military commentators. The tail of a command plane, where the traditional Soviet red star appears, appears perforated with dozens of holes, some of which are several centimeters long. This Ilyushin IL-22 managed to land at Anapa airport, in Russia, not far from Crimea. “The crew had a very good star above their heads… as well as an excellent pilot,” said analyst Red Samovar on his Twitter account. “At first glance, the aircraft is not about to return to flight. air.”
Added to this significant loss is another even more humiliating one for Russia. That of an A-50, a radar plane equivalent to the AWACS used by NATO. Ukraine claimed Monday January 15 to have shot it down, as well as the IL-22. “Thank you to the Air Force for the perfectly planned and carried out operation in the Azov region,” said General Valery Zalouzhny, Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian forces. For its part, the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense were careful not to confirm the event.
While Ukraine has lost the initiative on the Donbass front, it serves as a reminder of how Russia is experiencing its share of difficulties, almost two years after the invasion decided by Vladimir Putin. This is in fact the first time that the Russian army has suffered the loss of an A-50, considered to be equipment of strategic importance. It only has around ten – the number of operational aircraft is not known – whose main mission is to rotate over Belarus and the Sea of Azov to monitor the Ukrainian sky and that of the Black Sea.
Strategic loss
“An IL-22 – above all a command post – is less powerful for detection than an A-50, but this type of equipment is so important that we consider that it cannot be lost, because it gives all its coherence to an aerial device, explains Vincent Tourret, associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. These flying radars are much stronger twins than ground radars, blocked by the roundness of the earth and the reliefs.” They make it possible to direct Russian strikes deep into Ukrainian territory, but also to better detect Ukrainian attacks, in Russia or in Crimea.
Already, in February 2023, an A-50 parked at a Belarusian airport was the target of an attack by small commercial drones, without apparently irreversible damage. The loss in mid-January 2024 is reminiscent of that of the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the cruiser Moskva, almost two months after the Russian invasion. This type of equipment inherited from major Soviet programs may have been modernized, but is no longer produced. Their loss results in lasting capacity reductions for the Russian military.
Patriot missile or “friendly” fire?
How did she intervene? The Ukrainians could have used one of the anti-aircraft systems supplied by its Western allies, such as the Patriot, which has a range of 160 kilometers. Enough to reach planes in the Sea of Azov if the firing is carried out not far from the front line. In any case, this is the analysis of Justin Bronk, researcher at the London think tank RUSI, in view of the damage caused to the tail of the IL-22, consistent with what “a large fragmentation warhead” can cause. The radar planes could also have been the victim of “friendly fire” no less worrying for the Russian pilots.
This hard blow for Moscow serves as a reminder that Russia is not entirely to its advantage on the Ukrainian front. Certainly, the counter-offensive launched by kyiv last summer only resulted in minimal territorial gains, with no breakthrough in opposing defense lines. Added to this is the fact that the Ukrainians could be increasingly lacking ammunition, in the absence of an increase in the rate of shell production by its Western partners.
But the Russians, although they have regained the initiative since the end of the autumn, are unable to obtain the symbolic victory that they are trying to wrest from Avdiivka, at the cost of many lives. This industrial city in Donbass is still in the hands of the Ukrainians. “The Russian army has consolidated in terms of personnel and equipment in 2023, notes Vincent Tourret. But the new units are immediately thrown into the furnace and destroyed, for lack of new tactics and new technological means.” A situation which allows the Ukrainians to continue to hold their front.
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