Russia’s goal may be to make Kharkiv uninhabitable.
In recent days, Russia has hit Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, hard.
We asked the doctor of military science From Ilmari Käihköwhich is what accelerated bombing is all about.
What is Russia aiming for by bombing Kharkiv?
“Russia aims to win the war,” Käihkö replies.
“The concern is that Russia is testing the strategy learned from Syria and perhaps from Chechnya, that if they are not able to conquer the region, then it will be made unviable. Then it is not useful to the other side either.
So it can become an area that Russia does not control, but Ukraine does nothing either. Russia could then continue the same strategy elsewhere against Ukraine’s population centers.”
Can Kharkiv become the Aleppo of this war, which will be bombed to the ground?
“Is that possible? In theory, Russia can implement the Aleppo strategy known from the Syrian civil war in Kharkiv by attacking critical infrastructure, making the city uninhabitable.
A similar situation has already been seen in Hersonis. Although Ukraine released it in November 2022, it is not very viable. It is still within artillery range of the Russian positions.
The problem in Kharkiv is the same, that is, the Russians are quite close. The attacks increase the price of war and may affect Ukraine’s ability and desire to continue the war.
That is why it is also necessary to find reconstruction money already during the war.”
Did the bombings foreshadow a major attack on Kharkiv?
“Time will tell whether Russia has such plans or not. Softening the area before such an attack is a possible reason.
Russia’s offensive ability is also a question mark. Ground attacks in this war have proven both difficult and costly for the meager gains.
On the one hand, Russia seems to be implementing its new air strategy in Kharkiv with allied bombs. On the other hand, its purpose may be to try to create a buffer zone in the direction of Kharkiv.”
What is the significance of Kharkov in terms of the whole war?
“As Ukraine’s second largest city and former capital, Kharkiv is symbolically very important.
If it became uninhabitable and the city’s population had to be relocated, it would cause large economic losses for Ukraine and affect Ukraine’s fighting morale.”
What does the situation in Kharkiv say about Ukraine’s ability to defend itself?
“Now in Kharkiv we can see the weakness of Ukraine’s air defense. It is clearly easier to attack there than Kiev.
That’s why the president Volodymyr Zelenskyi has requested seven new Patriot anti-aircraft systems. They can also shoot down Russian hypersonic missiles.
It is a question of the political will of the supporting countries, whether Ukraine will receive them.
Cruise bombs have proven problematic for Ukraine because they should be able to close the airspace from a great distance, and they have not been able to do this.
The Russian air force has not suffered as great losses in this war as the ground forces. Russia has had a superior position in the air throughout the war.”
What can Ukraine do in this situation?
“There is no quick solution for Ukraine. Improving air defense would be the most important thing, but that would mean more anti-aircraft systems and more ammunition.
This is why air defense is currently emphasized in Ukraine’s speech.
In an air war, attacking is cheaper than defending.
An Iranian-made drone costs tens of thousands of euros and they are shot down with missiles costing a couple of million. The equation is not sustainable in the long run.
Ukraine also expects a lot from F-16 fighters. However, it is uncertain whether they will still be in use this summer. Pilot training is in progress and their armament is open.”