Russia lacks the necessary weaponry and fresh intelligence for a similar attack. Russia has reportedly succeeded in destroying large concentrations of Ukrainian forces only in the early stages of the war.
It will be difficult for Russia to take revenge for the attack on Makijivka in Ukraine on New Year’s Day, where hundreds of Russian soldiers are believed to have died.
The Russian armed forces lack the precision weapons and up-to-date intelligence needed for a similar attack, according to the military experts interviewed by .
– Ukraine has spies in the territories occupied by Russia and they receive intelligence information from Western countries. This combined with precision weapons allows for strikes like Makijivka. Russia lacks both of these elements, says the Alexander Institute’s visiting researcher Ilmari Käihkö.
Researcher at the National Defense University, major evp. Jukka Viitaniemi points out that revenge itself is a very vague concept in warfare.
– So what is revenge? Russia can try something, and then if the troops hit something, it can be declared as revenge. They don’t have the courage for a similar attack, says Viitaniemi.
He reminds us that Russian forces have reportedly not succeeded in striking Ukrainian garrisons or other large mass concentrations since the beginning of the war.
Ukraine hit Makijivka in the Donetsk region with four missiles launched from the HIMARS rocket launcher system. The missiles hit a school building where Russian soldiers were housed.
According to Ukraine, 300-400 soldiers were killed in the attack. So far, Russia has confirmed that 89 soldiers were killed in Makijivka.
The experts have emphasized that the figures announced by both parties should be viewed critically.
Intimidation is easy
So far, the Russian military command has not said that it intends to avenge Makijivka’s attack.
However, according to Käihkö, nationalist war bloggers and public opinion in Russia can increase political pressure for some kind of counterattack.
Also the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi warned in his speech on Monday that Russia is preparing a series of revenge attacks with drones carrying explosives.
This is not the first time that retaliation is expected from Russia.
After Ukraine bombed the Kerch Strait bridge in October, Russia accelerated its attacks against Ukraine’s infrastructure network.
President Vladimir Putin characterized these attacks as a response to the attack on the Kerch Strait bridge.
– This most recent blow has certainly gotten under the skin of the Russians and they want some kind of compensation for it, says Viitaniemi, a researcher at the National Defense University.
The eye for an eye principle is not the whole picture of war
According to researcher Käihkö, it is somewhat difficult to assess the development of the war in Ukraine by the balance of strikes and counterstrikes.
However, both sides always try their best to cause damage to the other side’s forces.
However, reciprocity and the effort to communicate permissible and impermissible military actions through strikes works on a higher, strategic level.
According to researcher Käihkö, Russia could avenge the Makijivka strike by using weapons of mass destruction. For example, I still see the political risks associated with nuclear weapons as greater than the military benefits obtained with them, Käihkö continues.
At the same time, the United States and other supporters of Ukraine are also very specific about what kind of military support they offer to Kiev.
– There are limitations in the actions of both Russia and the United States, which are precisely related to the fear of punishment. On the battlefield, these larger-scale limitations are not seen in the same way, but the aim is to defeat the enemy, Käihkö analysed.
Read more:
Ukraine carried out one of its most devastating strikes on Makijivka on New Year’s Day, prompting Russian war bloggers to rage against the country’s military leadership
A rudimentary mistake by the Russians could lead to one of the most devastating attacks of the war – soldiers’ New Year’s messages became “death calls”
Expert: “Russia is beginning to be partially eaten” – this is the war situation in Ukraine now
Zelenskyi: Russia is planning a prolonged series of drone strikes