The Ukrainian army was still clinging to Soledar on Thursday, January 12, despite “a difficult situation” and “fierce fighting” in this small town in eastern Ukraine that Russian forces are tirelessly trying to conquer in order to hope to overthrow the course of the war. The cost of a victory at Soledar and Bakhmout could be exorbitant for the Russian forces and hamper the possibilities of a winter offensive.
Around Bakhmout and Solar, the Russian army concentrated its twelve artillery brigades. All the Russian guns are there or almost: the large caliber motorized artillery, like the 2S7 Pion of 207mm and the 152 pieces but also the towed howitzers of the 1980s.
Because the Russians are drawing on their stocks, indicates Philippe Gros, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research; and also to avoid too rapid wear of the artillery tubes, they limit daily firing to 24 rounds per gun.
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A problem of wear
” A 152 gun, beyond 2,000 rounds, it must be replaced, he explains. It is not at all obvious that the Russians have a lot of reserve tubes, it is a heavy operation to do at the rear. From the beginning of the war, they already destocked hundreds of towed guns, which means that their artillery was already worn out before the war. They have a problem of wear which becomes absolutely determining. That’s why I wonder with what they will be able to equip the forces that are supposed to go back on the offensive, with what equipment? What ammunition? »
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The second part of the 300,000 Russian conscripts will soon be operational, and the Russian forces could be supplemented by a second wave of conscriptions, for a major attack at the end of winter. But without artillery, the steamroller would be essentially human, with “single-purpose soldiers”, as Russian generals say before each offensive.
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