The Finnish experts interviewed by estimate that the time window for Ukraine’s counterattack is short, as the autumn rains are coming.
Ukraine announced on Monday that it had launched a counterattack against Russian positions in southern Ukraine in the Kherson region.
The country’s armed forces have signaled throughout the summer that they are seeking to regain control of the western side of the Dnieper River and even the city of Kherson, but the start of a large-scale counter-offensive could be waited until this week.
The former intelligence chief of the General Staff, Major General evp. Pekka Toveri says that Ukraine calmly waited for the most suitable moment to start the attack.
– The attrition of Russian forces in the Kherson region began several weeks ago with attacks on command and maintenance posts and transport links. Ukraine estimates that the Russians are now worn out enough and that the right moment for an attack is at hand.
Military professor at the National Defense University, lieutenant colonel Janne Mäkitalo is on the same lines and emphasizes that the heavy weaponry that Ukraine received from the West helped it to prepare a counterattack.
In particular, Ukraine has been helped by the Himars rocket launchers, which have been able to significantly disrupt the Russian supply chain during the summer.
According to Mäkitalo, an important reason is also the level of training of the Ukrainian forces.
– The training of the troops has now progressed to the stage where mechanized troops can be used for large-scale attacks, says Mäkitalo.
– It must be remembered that between 2014 and 2022, the budget of the Ukrainian armed forces only allowed for battalion-level training. Offensive warfare training for larger groups could not be done before, he continues.
The time window of the attack is limited
According to both experts, the circumstances also influence Ukraine’s decision to launch a counterattack. The arrival of autumn puts clear time pressure on the attack.
– The approach of winter weighs heavily here. Towards October, the rains increase and the terrain becomes wetter. The conditions for an attack will deteriorate after September, Toveri says.
Mäkitalo is on the same lines and says that due to the autumn rains, heavy vehicles cannot move practically at all outside the roads.
– Even in winter, decent frost does not develop on the coastal strip, which would support the weight of battle tanks or even assault tanks in some places, says Mäkitalo.
– Now there is a window of time that Ukraine wants to take advantage of.
Kherson could be defended “like Stalingrad”
Kherson was the first major city that Ukraine lost control of in the spring and winter after Russia launched its major offensive.
Restoring control of the city to Ukraine is a clear strategic goal of the counteroffensive.
– Now there are indications that the focus of the counterattack would be on the north and northwest side of the city of Hersonis, says Toveri.
– From there, Ukraine may try to make a quick breakthrough to the city of Kherson before the Russians have managed to retreat to defensive positions in an orderly manner.
According to Tover, the Russian front line north of the Dnieper River has been 200 kilometers wide, which is why it has been easy for Ukraine to make breakthroughs in the first moments of the attack.
– There are approximately 20-30 Russian battalions there, and they are all worn out. Even a full-strength battalion would have a job to do in defending a front line five kilometers wide.
The comrade estimates that the Russians probably won’t even try to defend the entire 200 km wide front line, but want to retreat in an orderly manner.
– I suspect that Russia might try to retreat to the city of Kherson and hold the city like the city of Stalingrad in its time [toisessa maailmansodassa]. At that time, the Soviet troops held the bridgehead in the nuclear center and looked after the troops under the cover of darkness.
Directing an attack on the city of Kherson would be difficult for the Ukrainians, as the defender has a clear advantage in the cities.
– The settlement center battle is exhausting. It is just as difficult for the Ukrainians to attack cities as it has been for the Russians, and the Ukrainians don’t want to bomb their own cities like the Russians have bombed them, says Toveri.
If Ukraine’s rapid advance towards Kherson turns out to be difficult, Toveri estimates that Ukraine might focus on disrupting Russia’s supply links.
Russia could be made to voluntarily withdraw from the defensive positions north of the Dnieper River if ammunition, food and fuel began to run out.
– Little by little, there may be a culmination point where Russia will have to choose whether to sacrifice its troops at the bridgehead or retreat to the other side of the river.
Toveri doesn’t believe in a reckless attack by Ukraine if Russia’s defense turns out to be strong.
– As long as Ukraine has the ability to fight, it can do so independently. Conditions deteriorate if troops are wasted in a single counterattack.
Will the Russian troops be caught by surprise?
Military professor Mäkitalo reminds us of the geography of the region, which may cause problems for Russia as well. The front direction from Mykolajiv is limited by the impassable estuary of the Dnieper river in the southwest and the Inhulets river in the northeast.
– The further the Ukrainian troops advance, the narrower the Russian motorized troops are packed into, making them good targets for rocket launchers.
Mäkitalo reminds us that, on the other hand, the combat power of the Russian forces increases, the more limited the area they defend.
In addition, the number of settlement centers increases as the Ukrainian forces approach the city of Kherson. It gives Russia the opportunity to direct the warfare to an urban battle even before Kherson.
According to Mäkitalo, in the next few days it is essential to monitor whether the Ukrainian attack is able to surprise the Russian defense.
– The history of war is full of examples that if you manage to cause critical losses to, for example, staffs and maintenance, by surprise and massively, it can cause a shock reaction in the troops, says Mäkitalo.
The attack is an important test for Ukraine’s fighting morale
Ukraine has loaded a lot of expectations on the counter attack, so it is under pressure to succeed in its attack.
– Ukraine has been very careful about operational security. They have not announced their attack operations in advance, but have only informed if a village or town has been captured, says Mäkitalo.
According to the military professor, Ukraine’s open announcement of the launch of a counterattack seems premeditated.
– Now we clearly trust that here [vastahyökkäyksessä] let’s succeed.
By charging expectations for a counterattack, Ukraine also piles pressure on itself to succeed in taking back territories for itself.
– If it were to happen that Russia rejects the advance in all directions and shows that it is able to maintain a large bridgehead on the west bank of the Dnieper River and build pontoon bridges across the river, then it would be a clear victory for Russia, Mäkitalo estimates.
Former intelligence chief Toveri also considers the success of the counterattack important.
– If we didn’t go beyond the beginning and there were big losses, it would be a mental setback for the Ukrainians.
You can discuss the topic until 11.09.2022.