Russia’s goal is to conquer the whole of eastern Ukraine, the Donbass region. However, throughout the war, Russia has reduced its targets. It says that it has not gone well, says research officer Pihlajamaa.
Katriina Töyrylä,
Jussi Nurminen
In recent weeks, Russia has made significant progress in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, which it is seeking to take over completely.
About 90 percent of Luhansk is already in Russia’s possession, and the country’s forces have also advanced in Donetsk.
According to a British military intelligence assessment, Russia has achieved greater success in Ukraine than before by concentrating its forces and strikes on a smaller area.
Ukraine has reported heavy casualties by Russian troops and the loss of a lot of equipment. Almost since the beginning of the war in Ukraine and the West, it has been estimated that Russia is doing badly in the war.
We asked a graduate officer at the National Defense College Antti from Pihlajamaa how this fits in with the fact that Russia now owns a large part of both southern and eastern Ukraine.
Is Russia doing well or badly in the fighting?
Research officer Antti Pihlajamaa states that it is not possible to say unequivocally whether Russia is currently doing well or badly in its war of aggression in Ukraine.
– Compared to the original targets that Russia has been interpreted to have had when it attacked Ukraine in February, Russia is doing badly.
Pihlajamaa points out that the goals have been screwed down many times. First, the change of regime in Ukraine and the cessation of statehood for the conquest of the Donbass region.
– The scale of the operation has become much smaller and it shows that it has not gone well.
However, Russia has significant territories in Ukraine compared to the situation before February 24, Pihlajamaa tells by phone.
According to him, it is also difficult to see that in the short term Ukraine would be able to turn the situation to such an advantage that it would be able to take back the territories occupied by Russia during the spring.
– At the same time, there are no signs that Ukraine is succumbing, surrendering or tired to such an extent that it would favorably give Russia more territory.
Heavy war for Ukraine as well
Ukraine and the West have repeatedly said that Russian troops have suffered heavy casualties.
On the other hand, no information has been leaked about Ukraine’s losses, which Pihlajamaa estimated may be a conscious choice.
He does not go to estimate the amount of losses in Ukraine, but believes that the war has been heavy for Ukraine as well and that there have certainly been losses.
– It may also explain the fact that Russia has been able to make progress in the Luhansk region.
“Russia digs the bottoms of the armed islands”
According to Pihlajamaa, Russia’s superiority in terms of the number of soldiers was not quite huge at first, and now the situation has turned, if not in favor of Ukraine, at least more evenly.
Ukraine launched its deployment in late February and has been able to replenish its forces.
Russia, on the other hand, has not announced a mobilization and has faced major challenges in staffing.
– It probably says its own language about not being prepared for such a war at all.
Ukraine is constantly replenishing its equipment from the West. Russia, on the other hand, is struggling with the adequacy of equipment. Pihlajamaa points out that there are already signs of the appearance of very old equipment, such as tanks, in Ukraine.
– Perhaps to put it a little more sharply, we are now digging the bottom of the laurel, Pihlajamaa says.
Admittedly, Russia’s maintenance has been facilitated by the fact that it has concentrated its attack on eastern Ukraine close to the Russian border, and is no longer fighting in so many directions.
“Russia has begun to trust its strengths”
Compared to the beginning of the war, it seems that Russia has begun to rely on its own strengths, such as the mass and centralized use of artillery, Pihlajamaa estimates.
Russia, on the other hand, has not been very willing to fight the city throughout the war. Russia, for example, is seeking to besiege and seize the city of Severodonetsk in Luhansk.
According to Pihlajamaa, the large-scale destruction of cities such as Mariupol and Severodonetsk by severe and massive use of fire is a doctrine of warfare in Russia.
– It is partly related to the equipment. Russia has a lot of Soviet-era artillery and does not have precision equipment. The effect is based on the area effect: When shooting over a sufficiently large area, even the desired paint will certainly remain under fire.
“No zero sum game”
Pihlajamaa finds it difficult to assess whether Ukraine now has more or less cause for optimism than, for example, a month ago.
– In a way, time is running out against Russia. It has staffing and equipment problems and has so far failed to address them through general mobilization or the declaration of an open war.
However, the war is not necessarily a pure zero-sum game, and its prolongation is not unequivocally on the Ukrainian side either, Pihlajamaa points out. For example, prolongation could challenge Western unity in supporting Ukraine.
Pihlajamaa considers it possible that Russia will continue to move forward, but probably slowly and with heavy losses. On the other hand, if Ukraine counterattacks, that, too, would likely require heavy losses if Russia resisted firmly.
Pihlajamaa does not believe that the war will end very soon.
– Both sides will most obviously see that it is still possible to achieve things by continuing to use force. In addition, no negotiations of any kind have been announced recently.
The focus of the fighting is now Severodonetsk
In recent days, fighting over the Donbass has focused particularly on the city of Severodonetsk. It is the largest city in Donbas still held by Ukraine.
Governor of the Luhansk region Serhii Haidain Russian troops have taken control of most of Severodonetsk. However, Haidal says the city has not been besieged, news agencies say.
Russian troops have approached the city from three directions. Russia is working to cut off Ukrainian service routes to the city and besiege Ukrainian troops.
According to Ukrainian authorities, the devastation in Severodonetsk is reminiscent of Mariupol, which has been largely destroyed by Russia.
As many as 90 percent of Severodonetsk’s buildings have been damaged, says Governor Haidai. The city, which was home to 100,000 people before the war, is still estimated to have between 13,000 and 15,000 civilians.