Russia is believed to have lost 3,000 tanks and 5,000 other armored vehicles since the war broke out in February two years ago.
The Dutch website Oryx has counted 3,235 vehicles that have been filmed or photographed destroyed, but they also estimate that the actual figure is significantly higher.
Russia has had a lot to draw from, thanks to the Soviet Union’s massive output during the Cold War, according to analyst Aleksandr Golts of the Stockholm-based Institute for East European Studies.
– Before its fall, the Soviet Union had more armored vehicles than the rest of the world combined, he tells The Economist.
But now it’s starting to take its toll.
“Very bad condition”
Last winter, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the country had delivered 1,530 tanks by 2023. What he didn’t say was that nearly 85 percent of them were not new. These were mainly dedusted or refurbished T-72 tanks from the early 1970s. Some of them were T-55s that began to be built shortly after World War II.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates that Russia has approximately 3,200 tanks and armored personnel carriers in stock. But they are judged to be in very poor condition.
– 70 percent of them have been standing outdoors since the early 1990s, says Michael Gjerstad, analyst at IISS, to The Economist.
Blasts his artillery
Another problem for Russia is the artillery. They are believed to have plenty of artillery ammunition – around three million shells – thanks in large part to the trade and defense agreement with North Korea.
But the abundance of munitions means that Russia at times fires more than five times as much artillery as Ukraine does – which wears out the fire tubes.
Howitzers in the most active combat areas need new fire tubes after just a few months, and analysts believe around 5,000 fire tubes have had to be replaced.
Russia on the defensive this fall
The solution here is also to recycle old material. Russia is moving fire tubes from old, cart-drawn artillery to its howitzers.
According to Michael Gjerstad, an analyst at IISS, Russia lacks the ability to manufacture them on a sufficient scale.
But the biggest challenge is still the armored vehicles. According to both Aleksandr Golts and Michael Gjerstad, the supply is believed to reach a “critical point” by next summer.
Putin may therefore have to look towards peace negotiations.
– If it continues like this, Russia will have to change to much more defensive positions already in the autumn, says Michael Gjerstad to The Economist.