Negotiations to end the Russian offensive war has progressed. On Tuesday, Ukraine approved a US proposal for a 30 -day ceasefire.
Russia has not yet stated its position.
Still, there is still a long way to go to the peace treaty and the negotiations can fall at any time.
Professor of international politics Tuomas Forsberg The University of Tampere tells you what obstacles are still facing the lasting peace.
1. Does Russia accept the ceasefire?
According to the US, the ball is now in Russia. It will tell about the ceasefire proposal in the next few days.
According to Professor Forsberg, Russia’s position in the negotiations is good because it has alternatives.
“Russia can look at Trump’s cards and continue its game,” Forsberg says.
In other words, Russia can accept the ceasefire and see if it will receive the conditions it wants in the negotiations.
Or maybe it can continue to war and return to the negotiations only at the time that suits it.
According to Forsberg, Russia will probably agree to some sort of proposal now and look at what it will follow. The Russian options will remain open after that.
“At this stage, it is less likely that this will quickly have a ceasefire and more permanent peace,” says Forsberg.
According to Forsberg, there may well be more ceasefires and their breaks.
2. How does the United States manage to guide the negotiations?
If the ceasefire starts, next would be the actual peace negotiations under the leadership of the United States. It is completely open how they would go.
So far the President of the US Donald Trump is mainly focused on pressure Ukraine.
According to Professor Forsberg, Ukraine agreed to the ceasefire when the United States interrupted the sharing of weapon aid and intelligence.
“Ukraine was in bad obsession,” says Forsberg.
According to Professor Forsberg, it is now interesting to see if the United States is trying to get Russia to make some compromises for its own goals.
For Ukraine, it is ominous if the Ukrainian Kyiv Post magazine The information is true. According to the sources of the magazine, the United States has already approved Russia’s key conditions of peace.
3. What conditions can Ukraine and Russia be flexible?
The Peace Agreement would require that both Ukraine and Russia give in to their own goals.
So far, goals are very far apart.
– Russia has not given up any of its goals it has set at the beginning of the war. Rather, they have come along even more along the way, says Forsberg.
According to Forsberg, Russia is trying to get a strong grip on Ukraine, even if it remains an independent state.
Russia also wants to gain international recognition for the incorporation of the Crimea and four other Ukraine areas. At the same time, it tries to get the areas completely captured.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has to consider what kind of peace should be tolerated at all.
“It is essential for Ukraine to have some kind of security guarantee and the idea that Ukraine can decide on its own leaders and not confuse it,” says Forsberg.
4. Does Europe protect peace?
So far, European countries have not been involved in the negotiations. However, they have begun to work on security guarantees for Ukraine.
In practice, this would mean European peacekeeping or deterrent troops that would be sent to Ukraine after the battles break. The purpose of these would be to ensure that Russia would no longer dare to attack again.
Over 30 NATO countries, Japan and Australian armed forces were discussed on Tuesday in Paris about the abilities of the armies of different countries to offer. The results of the meeting did not exude information to the public.
The open question is whether Europeans dare to send troops without US support and Russia’s consent. There is a risk of open war between Russia and Europe.
The United States was not at the Paris meeting and its position has been that it is not sending troops to Ukraine.
Russia, for its part, has stated that it by no means accepting NATO troops in Ukraine.
According to Professor Tuomas Forsberg, turning Russia’s head would require severe pressure.
I saw the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine on Wednesday.