Moscow, 2028. Russia, controlled by a brutal and bloodthirsty oligarchy, has fallen into absolute totalitarianism. Like the sadistic guards of Ivan the Terrible in the 16th century, the new masters, in an archaic universe governed by sophisticated technologies, cause terror to reign in the name of Holy Orthodox Russia. Reclusive in a country cut off from Europe by a Great Wall, they expelled the Westerners, but are subject to Chinese influence. The population is poor, nationalistic and docile. In the grip of ruthless feudalism, the country plunged into one of the darkest periods of its history.
When the writer Vladimir Sorokin publishes his Diary of an oprichnik in 2006, his fable was hailed as brilliant fiction. Seventeen years later, this novel is no longer a dystopia. It now constitutes a completely possible scenario for Russia… Master of his destiny for more than two decades, Vladimir Putin could have propelled his country into the 21st century, but he is precipitating it into darkness. Driven by his dreams of grandeur, blinded by his hatred of the West, his only project was to prepare for war. The invasion of Ukraine was supposed to restore Russia’s luster. The reverse is happening.
Resources are getting scarce
Hiding in their trenches, after sixteen months of fruitless fighting, the Russian soldiers are now suffering from the Ukrainian counter-offensive. If no one can predict the outcome, we do know that Moscow will not be able to win this war as long as the West is on kyiv’s side. This madness could even accelerate the disintegration of the regime. “This is an empire in decline, which will eventually collapse,” prognosticates historian Alexander Etkind, comparing Putin’s disastrous decision to that of the Habsburgs to trigger the First World War, which led to their fall.
Already, signs of degradation are appearing within society and power. These fractures could deepen, as war and Western sanctions reduce the Kremlin’s financial room for manoeuvre. Until now, the central power had used the manna of hydrocarbons to attenuate the glaring social inequalities and to ensure the loyalty of the population. “But now that resources are becoming scarce, divisions are beginning to surface,” observes sociologist Grigori Yudin in a memo for the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation. Conflicts are more likely to occur as the poorer provinces pay the heaviest price of conflict. “The pressure caused by the war will probably create inter-ethnic tensions and push the national republics towards more autonomy from imperial power,” predicts this expert.
The gains that war was supposed to bring don’t come
“Putin holds the Republics of Russia with a mixture of coercion and corruption,” adds historian Galia Ackerman. But for how long ? Already, discontent is growing among the regional governors, responsible for recruiting troops for the war and having insufficient means to do so. In the big cities, the elites, so long silent, grow impatient with a war that has lasted too long. “Putin promised the business community, members of the administration and the political elite that there would be substantial gains to be made from the war: important posts in the conquered territories, juicy public contracts… But this speech is crumbling, because these regions are not really under Russian control,” observes Anna Colin Lebedev, lecturer at Paris-Nanterre University.
In reality, “Putin himself sabotaged the two pillars on which rested the pact he made with the elites: he impoverished them by cutting them off from the West and he highlighted the fact that the great power Russian military was just a myth,” adds historian Françoise Thom.
There is definitely something rotten in Putin’s kingdom, and one of the most visible clues is the iconoclastic behavior of Yevgueni Prigojine, the boss of the Wagner mercenary group, who constantly castigates the minister’s incompetence. of Defence, Sergei Shoigu. “The army was one of the rare institutions not to have been emptied of its meaning: solidity and coherence prevailed over individual logics. However, the Kremlin lets Prigojine continue its work of undermining: it is a bell of alarm concerning the solidity of the regime”, resumes Anna Colin Lebedev. “By criticizing the Russian general staff without restraint, the head of Wagner violates an absolute rule of Putinian etiquette: he puts his quarrels with the elite in the public square, abounds Françoise Thom. This is clearly the symptom of a crisis: Putin’s vertical of power is unraveling.” For some observers, the head of the Kremlin is using Prigojine to put pressure on the Minister of Defense and the army staff, who risk becoming increasingly powerful if the war lasts: a wager to high risk.
The Threat of “God’s Weapon”
Add to this sad picture a demographic apathy that the war has only accentuated: between 200,000 and one million Russians have left the country in the past sixteen months, the largest wave of Russian emigration since the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917. Another weakness, notes the economist Nicholas Eberstadt, the country “is characterized by its low number of patents filed”, which places it 25th in the world over the period 2000-2020 while it is the 9th most populated in the world. . Refusing its inevitable downgrading, the Russian power could be tempted to lock itself in violence.
The war in Ukraine illustrates this infernal spiral. More and more cornered, Putin has little other option than to rush forward. But even in case of failure, the master of the Kremlin could manage to maintain himself, by taking additional degrees in authoritarianism. “If Putin judges that his former allies are becoming a threat to him, he will launch a great wave of repression, as in the days of the great Stalinist purges, suggests the Russian journalist in exile Roman Anin. And he will close the country as in Iran, in Korea North or China.”
Defeated in Ukraine, Putin could also fall into total horror by resorting to a tactical nuclear weapon. The Russian president has just recalled it: he transferred his first nuclear warheads to Belarus. Feeling wings grow, some propagandists, such as political scientist Sergei Alexandrovich Karaganov, suggest unleashing “God’s weapon” in order to force the West “to a strategic retreat, even to a capitulation”. In his worst nightmares, Vladimir Sorokin hadn’t even thought about it.