Pokrovsk is located just under seven kilometers northeast of the city of Donetsk. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, roughly 60,000 people lived in Pokrovsk.
Russian forces have not been distracted by Ukraine’s Kursk offensive. On the contrary, they are said to be advancing in Donbass, and this week families with children were urged to leave Pokrovsk since Russian forces moved ever closer to the city, AP reports.
For Ukraine, Pokrovsk is an important hub for logistics and distribution of dressings in the region. That’s what former lieutenant colonel Jörgen Elfving says.
– Should the Russians take Pokrovsk, they can continue the attack in a western direction towards the Dnipro, which is also an important hub for Ukraine. The alternative is to continue the attack in a north-eastern direction up towards Tjasiv Jar.
Symbolically important city
For Russia, Pokrovsk is thus a key city where it is possible to cut off Ukrainian connections. Like Bachmut and Avdijivka, the city is also symbolically important for Russia.
– It has figured in reporting on the war for a long time, says Jörgen Elfving.
The advance is part of a larger Russian advance in the Donbass region. Many Ukrainian units are tied to the Kursk offensive and cannot be moved at a moment’s notice. Whether Russia actually succeeds in its goal of capturing the entire Donetsk region largely depends on how large the resources can be allocated.
– If it continues in the same way as recently, I do not rule out the possibility that Russia will achieve its war goals in Donetsk, says Jörgen Elfving.
“A blissful mess”
At the same time, Ukraine has achieved success in the Kursk region. They have advanced over 35 kilometers into Russia and taken control of about a hundred communities.
Russia has responded by sending down brigades consisting of, among other things, conscripts and soldiers from the National Guard, and it is unclear who is leading the efforts.
– On the one hand, the FSB is responsible because it is an anti-terrorist operation. At the same time, the Ministry of Defense has established a coordination council for measures. Added to that is the information that Aleksej Dyumin is responsible for this. From a management perspective, both tactically and strategically operationally, this is a blissful mess, says Jörgen Elfving.
According to sources within the military-political leadership in Russia, Putin must have ordered forces to liberate Kursk by October 1 at the latest.
– If the Russian countermeasures are carried out in the same way as now, and if the Ukraine digs in and sets up a defense of the terrain taken, the first of October is wishful thinking, says Jörgen Elfving.