The National Rally, which rode great momentum just before the first of the early legislative elections, could mark its territory this Sunday, June 30.
Will a National Rally wave sweep across France in the first round of legislative elections this Sunday, June 30? The big winner of the European elections on June 9 – which led to the surprise dissolution of the National Assembly by President Emmanuel Macron – the far-right party seems capable of shaking up the political scene. In any case, this is the trend that emerged from the latest polls a few hours before the first round, with one of them even giving it an absolute majority in a favorable scenario.
It was in Garches, in Hauts-de-Seine, that Jordan Bardella, the leading figure of the National Rally during the legislative election campaign, went this Sunday morning at 10 a.m. to vote. The president of the far-right party, candidate for the post of Prime Minister, is expected in the evening near the Pavillon Wagram, in the 17th arrondissement of Paris, where he will make a speech following the results of the first round.
The record number of deputies from the National Rally before these early legislative elections was 89. A score obtained during the last legislative elections, in June 2022, a few weeks after the re-election of Emmanuel Macron as President of the Republic. This result could be much higher for these new legislative elections, since forecasts made before the reservation period projected between 250 and 305 seats for the far-right party.
A result between 35 and 37% for the RN in the latest polls
The party chaired since 2021 by Jordan Bardella, once closely followed by the New Popular Front, has distanced itself from the union of the left in the latest opinion polls, pointing to between 35 and 37% of voting intentions nationally with its allies in Les Républicains. If these figures are confirmed in the ballot boxes this Sunday, then the RN, which has strong support in rural areas, would have a strong chance of achieving historic scores in certain constituencies and could obtain several seats as of the end of the first round.
How many deputies for the RN after the legislative elections?
The National Rally, the big winner on June 9 in the European elections where it came first in more than 32,000 French municipalities (out of 35,000), had 89 deputies before the dissolution of the National Assembly. He could count three times as many in a week after the second round.
The projections are in fact increasingly optimistic for the RN since, starting from 195 to 245 seats in the estimates made at the start of this blitzkrieg, it could ultimately win enough constituencies to achieve its objective of an absolute majority.
Forecasts now give between 250 and 305 seats to the National Rally. It is therefore no longer excluded that Jordan Bardella, designated within the far-right party as the candidate for the post of Prime Minister, is in a position to form his government on the evening of July 7.