The NFP plans to table a motion of censure within a few days for a vote organized “next week”. The text must be supported by the RN, or by others, to overthrow the Barnier government.
The political line and future measures of the Barnier government have been exposed: how long will the Prime Minister be able to implement them? The ball is in the court of the National Assembly. With only 220 deputies behind him, Michel Barnier knows he is at the mercy of the slightest motion of censure. And the first attempt to overthrow the government will come very quickly.
The New Popular Front (NFP) has promised a motion of censure around Michel Barnier’s general policy speech and the Socialist Party should table the text at the end of the week. The vote on the motion could take place between October 8 and 9 according to information from RMC. A useful deadline to give other parties time for reflection, because the left intends to clarify the positions of each political force vis-à-vis the government with only two possible options: opposition or support.
The objective is therefore clear for Michel Barnier’s government: to stand up to the left while ensuring sufficient support from the far right. If the 193 NFP deputies promise to vote on the motion of censure, there will not be enough of them to see the text through. The absolute majority of deputies present during the vote must support the text for the censorship to be effective, i.e. 289 if all 577 deputies are united. The support of a significant part of the 126 elected representatives of the National Rally, if not all, and therefore necessary to overthrow the government.
The RN “refuses censorship a priori” but…
Marine Le Pen refuses to consider her party as supporting the government which was formed through “arrangements, withdrawals and schemes”. But the president of the RN group in the Assembly also refused to “censor a priori” the executive. She therefore announced “to give a chance” to the Prime Minister “out of patriotism, out of consideration for our compatriots who are suffering, out of respect for our institutions” after Michel Barnier’s general policy speech. The upcoming motion of censure, which will not be supported by the RN, therefore seems doomed to failure.
If a chance is given, it is also and above all conditional, because Marine Le Pen has set her “red lines” or rather the conditions which, if they are met, will keep her away from a motion of censure. First non-negotiable demand: a jump on migration policy with an immigration law expected in early 2025. The leader of the far right also demands that the tax increase planned by the government be “compensated by purchasing power returned to our modest fellow citizens who work and have seen their food supply melt away for three years.” Respect and consideration for the elected representatives of the RN and their ideas is another condition, but Marine Le Pen did not remind the Assembly of this. The message seems to have been assimilated by Michel Barnier and transmitted, sometimes firmly, to ministers.
The RN intends to play referee, but it does not rule out voting or filing a motion of censure against the Barnier government if the latter does not live up to its demands. A position of strength made possible by the tripartite distribution of forces in the National Assembly and which the party intends to take advantage of. Especially since the RN can also count on the fifteen Ciottist deputies that it counts among its allies.
Censorship supported by the NFP and the RN possible
The government has every interest in satisfying the RN sufficiently to avoid a motion of censure, but the “common base” formed behind it by the right and the presidential coalition will not always be able to meet the demands of the far right. He then hopes that a rapprochement, even opportunistic, between the NFP and the RN to vote for censorship will not happen. However, a motion of censure is the expression of opposition to the government, not the birth of an alliance between political forces. A joint vote for the left and the far right is therefore possible if it is justified by the voters of the respective camps.
Left-wing voters, who saw the NFP come first in the legislative elections, are opposed to the Barnier government and are therefore in favor of censorship. On the far right, the slightest misstep by the executive could give rise to censorship. The oppositions could therefore come together on a motion of censure tabled after the examination of a bill, starting with the revision of the pension reform. While the NFP and the RN are calling for its repeal, the government is only just agreeing to adjustments…
The government censored by its own camp?
Support for a motion of no confidence could come from within the “common core”. The presidential party and allied political groups (MoDem, Horizons, UDI) support the government since they participate in it, but the left wing of the coalition could break away and oppose an executive leaning too far to the right. A breach that the left intends to exploit. “I see MoDem deputies saying that they hesitate to censor this government. I see Macronist deputies themselves who do not find themselves in the comments [des ministres]”slipped to RMC the socialist deputy Philippe Brun who calls on these same elected officials to support censorship.
“Let’s imagine that there is a left of the macronie, it’s time to wake up” insisted the boss of the PS Olivier Faure on TF1 October 1st. The elected official also welcomed the position taken by the former pillar of the Macronsite left wing Sacha Houlié who left the presidential group to sit with the non-registered and threatens to vote for censure. Other elected officials who still sit with the presidential camp do not rule out censorship either. “It’s possible, even if it’s not at all what I want. We need stability, work, compromise” declared Stella Dupont on RMC. According to her, the “government is too right-wing and does not reflect the aspirations of the French”.
A limited number of motions of censure?
However, there is no limit to the number of motions that can be filed. The only rules provide that each text must be signed by one tenth of the elected representatives of the National Assembly, i.e. 58 deputies, and that each elected representative cannot sign more than three motions of censure per parliamentary session, that is to say between October and June. The left has 193 elected officials, it can alone table up to nine motions of censure. RN elected officials can defend at least six of them and that’s without counting on the other deputies who could sign motions.