NATIONAL GATHERING. The National Rally is throwing all its forces into battle a few days before the legislative elections. Faced with the Nupes and LREM, the RN hope to obtain a hundred deputies in the Assembly.
[Mis à jour le 8 juin 2022 à 15h49] Hope is reborn in the ranks of the National Rally and the campaign is in full swing three days before the legislative elections. Better late than never, it is in the last straight line before the ballot that the far right and its leader, Marine Le Pen, are stepping up to the plate. In recent days the MP for Pas-de-Calais and the executives of the flame party have kept repeating that the RN is “the only opposition to Emmanuel Macron”. But the executive is not the only one to come under attack from the far right, the left-wing coalition and its leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon are also targeted. In the words of Jordan Bardella in a statement and the statements of Marine Le Pen in the columns of South West on June 9, the former represent “the predators from above” while the latter are compared to “the predators from below” and a “political ZAD”.
Very discreet during the majority of the legislative campaign, it is since May 30 and the start of the official campaign that the RN has manifested itself, as if to try to regain the advantage it had on the left during the 2022 presidential election. But this late entry into the campaign benefited Jean-Luc Mélenchon. However, the tripartism that has taken hold in France still leaves room for the National Rally to impose itself in the results of the polls. The tone of Marine Le Pen has also changed and if the deputy was aiming for “at least 60 seats” in the Assembly in mid-May, this time she no longer sets a limit to the ambitions of the far right going as far as hopefully more than a hundred seats. “We were in the lead in 150 constituencies, so we can have 150 deputies,” chanted Marine Le Pen in Perpignan on June 8. The reality on the ground and the advance of the presidential majority and the Nupes in the polls, however, force her to draw a line under obtaining a majority, but she refuses to let Jean-Luc Mélenchon pass her and always assures at South West : “Some, on the extreme left, pretend to believe that they can obtain a majority in the Assembly, that does not hold water”.
The scenario of a hundred seats allocated to the deputies of the National Rally seems all the same distant. Polls and projections on the composition of the National Assembly give between 30 and 50 seats to the extreme right. A sufficient figure to constitute a parliamentary group but well below the expectations of the party. The National Rally and its 567 invested candidates still have a little over a day to convince voters to vote for them. The stakes are colossal because like all political forces, the RN fears abstention. Marine Le Pen and her troops are increasing calls for mobilization towards voters, such as on June 7 on the sidelines of a trip to Loiret: “Help me help you. If you are not going to vote, I will not can’t help you. […] When we are not going to vote, we give half a voice to those […] who are in power”. Will the candidates and the program of the RN be convincing enough to hope for a victory in the legislative elections?
Who are the National Rally candidates for the legislative elections?
Marine Le Pen was one of the first to formalize her candidacy for the legislative elections through the voice of her right arm, Jordan Bardella, on April 28 from Fréjus. She confirmed in early May to stand for re-election in the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. At the same time, the interim president of the flame party praised the ranks provided by the RN with candidates invested in 567 out of 577 constituencies. Of the six RN deputies present in the Assembly, only four are standing: Marine Le Pen and Bruno Bilde in the Pas-de-Calais, Sébastien Chenu in the North and Nicolas Meizonnet in the Gard. All the other candidates will form the “new generation” of the RN as wanted by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen.
What result for the National Rally in the 2022 legislative elections?
Marine Le Pen’s result in the presidential election boded well for the legislative polls. For the second time in a row, the MP for Pas-de-Calais won in the second round, a score which gave her momentum to present herself as the first opposition force to Emmanuel Macron. But the momentum immediately subsided. In the current state it is difficult to predict the outcome of the legislative elections, but the lead taken by the presidential majority and the union of the left seems quite clear. The National Rally should still be able to count on its voters and obtain a number of deputies much higher than that obtained in 2017.
What result for the RN in the polls in the legislative elections?
According to polls carried out on voting intentions in the legislative elections, the National Rally could arrive on the third step of the podium on the evening of the first round. The presidential majority and the union of the left would impose themselves in front of the far right with between 3 and 7 points in advance. The RN could therefore pay for its late entry into the campaign and its desire to go it alone against the alliances formed around Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Survey studies are also advancing on the number of seats won by each political family and according to forecasts, the RN could hope for around forty deputies elected to the National Assembly, according to the latest estimates which are also the lowest. This number remains amply sufficient to form a parliamentary group.
What is the program of the National Rally?
The National Rally claims to be the “sole opposition” to Emmanuel Macron, but in its campaign the party is fighting both against the presidential majority made up of “predators from above” which, in the words of Jordan Bardella in a statement wants to make France “a trading room” and the coalition of the left made up of “predators from below” who want to “make it a giant squat” according to the president of the RN. The RN defends a program consequently, similar to that defended during the presidential campaign by Marine Le Pen, with the themes of purchasing power, immigration and retirement as priorities.
The purchasing power law being announced as the first to be voted on in the National Assembly, Jordan Bardella does not fail to recall the positions of the RN that the future deputies of the far right will defend “the reduction of VAT by 20% at 5.5% on fuel and energy”, “the total abolition of VAT on a basket of 100 basic necessities” and “the re-indexing of retirement pensions on inflation”. It is certain that the RN will also oppose the pension reform pushing back the retirement age to 65, which Emmanuel Macron assures is essential. Instead, the far right imagines a progressive system that will stagger retirement in 60 and 62 years or more depending on the age of arrival in working life.
Why did the RN refuse an alliance with Reconquest?
He had announced it and camped out his positions, the National Rally relies exclusively on its candidates and the scores obtained during the presidential election for the legislative elections. The extreme party refused to ally with the party of Eric Zemmour despite repeated invitations from the polemicist and his vice-president, Marion Maréchal. The far-right party also opposed the sovereignist alliance formed by Les Patriotes by Florian Philippot and Debout la France by Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. There will therefore be no “national union” against the left-wing coalition in the 2022 legislative elections.
The executives of the National Rally justify the party’s choice to race alone with the same argument since the end of the presidential campaign: an alliance between the RN and Reconquest would be incoherent and misunderstood by voters after their strong opposition in April. “Eric Zemmour did everything to make Marine Le Pen lose and to prevent him from qualifying for the second round, and today he comes to ask Marine Le Pen to help him get elected. It’s still contradictory “, has also launched Jordan Bardella on May 3 on France 2.
If he refuses an association with Eric Zemmour and his party, formed for many who resigned from the RN, Jordan Bardella does not reject the voters of the polemicist. On the contrary, he calls on them to choose the National Rally in the first round of the legislative elections. “Come with us! Do not waste your vote even though with 7%, you will not pass the second round in any constituency”, he assures without taking a glove. In addition to voters, Jordan Bardella has tried to get hold of some rising figures of Reconquest! like Stanislas Rigault, president of the movement of young zemmourists. The young activist did not seize the outstretched hand of the RN and was officially invested as a candidate for Reconquest, in the Vaucluse, and his deputy is none other than Marion Maréchal.
Candidates Reconquest! against those of the RN?
Eric Zemmour had assured that he would not present Reconquest candidates! against those invested by the National Rally, a promise made with a view to sealing an alliance of the far right. But without an agreement, the polemicist’s speech did not hold up and 551 candidates were invested by Reconquest!, i.e. 551 constituencies in which the RN and Eric Zemmour’s party will compete.