Belarus broke away from the Soviet Union in 1991. Since 1994, the president is Aleksandr Lukashenko. The question is how long will the country he rules exist other than on paper? The reason is called the Union agreement.
The other country in the Union is Russia. The union agreement leads to the end of the independence of Belarus, if the agreement is implemented in all parts.
The think tank ISW, Institute for the Study of war, has concluded in an in-depth analysis that Russia is for the first time about to take over a former Soviet republic without invasion.
Cooperation in three areas
The union agreement means that Belarus and Russia will cooperate in three areas; control of the state apparatus and the entire administration, control of the economy with a common currency, and not least – military cooperation. Now Putin’s generals have several military bases in Belarus.
Russian colonels now give orders to Belarusian generals. In small steps over almost 30 years, the larger neighbor has taken over almost everything. The next step may be that Belarusian men can be called into the armed forces of the Union, read Russia’s army.
ISW believes that Lukashenko is holding out as long as he can.
Yesterday 20:26
“The choice is not real”
The country may cease to exist
Economic integration has not yet been implemented in all stages. The Belarusian ruble is still the official currency. Previously, Lukashenko tried to have an open channel to the West, the EU and NATO. After the great popular uprising in 2020, when he lost, he was helped by Moscow to cling on.
If the final formal decisions are made on union between Russia and Belarus, the country ceases to exist except in name. As the process is multi-year, it may take place after 2030.
The consequences of the ongoing process have prompted NATO country Poland to deploy tank obstacles near the border. But all of Europe needs a strategy to deal with Moscow’s future plans.
The situation is reminiscent of a slowly growing mold behind the wall. Suddenly it starts to smell and become dangerous.