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1 / 5 Photo: Nicolas Landemard/AP/TT
The attack in Brussels is a clear signal that Sweden and Swedes remain a priority target for Islamist terror, according to experts.
– Unfortunately, this type of event is usually a source of inspiration for others, says Jörgen Holmlund, teacher in intelligence analysis.
Two Swedes were shot dead on Monday evening by a gunman just before the European Championship qualifying match between Sweden and Belgium in Brussels. Another Swede was seriously injured.
At least one victim was wearing a Swedish national team shirt, and according to Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, everything points to the fact that it was a terrorist act aimed specifically at Swedes. Belgian prosecutors are investigating links to Swedish Koran burnings.
The attack is another example of violent Islamist movements urging their followers to strike wherever they live, says terrorism researcher Magnus Norell.
– This is what Islamist terror looks like. You go after soft targets, people doing everyday things.
– Sweden has been involved in these contexts because it is a Western country and has been exposed to disinformation campaigns for quite a long time. So there has been a potential breeding ground for people to do something.
Easy to be a hindsight
When Säpo raised the terror threat level this summer, they warned of a worsening threat picture against Sweden and Swedish interests abroad. Questions are now being raised as to whether caution should have been urged in Brussels. Should the Swedish Football Association have even asked supporters to leave the blue-and-yellow shirt at home?
Jörgen Holmlund, teacher of intelligence analysis at the Norwegian Defense Academy, has seen an attack on Sweden as likely – but not of this kind.
– Walking on a street in Brussels in a blue and yellow shirt, I think a lot of people would have done and thought that here we are safe, he says.
– In my analysis patterns, I ended up on Swedish soil – the soccer ladies’ bronze medal celebration, some cultural event or a match at the Friends arena. Now it was in Belgium that Swedes were brutally murdered because of radical Islamism. My own analysis work was wrong, then it is difficult to criticize the Football Association.
Swedish own goal
Ulf Kristersson stated on Tuesday that Sweden does not adapt to terrorists. But according to Magnus Norell, that’s exactly what you do when you raise the terror threat level and discuss changes to the law to stop Koran burnings for security reasons.
– If you see that something works, you continue, and when Sweden folds down, you show that this works. They have scored own goals here, he says.
Norell also aims a boot at S-leader Magdalena Andersson, who on Tuesday called on everyone in Sweden to moderate the tone so as not to “whip up” conflicts. She appealed to the government to review changes to the legislation on incitement against ethnic groups and outrageous behaviour.
– In this situation, you should do the opposite. You should go out and emphasize that no one who has burned a Koran has done anything wrong and say that we support the right to do so. That is what we must defend. To start pawing at freedoms and rights in the light of threats and violence is completely wrong. There is a tradition within radical Islam that it is okay to use violence – they are the ones who must be dealt with.
Fear is the goal
TT: What does the threat picture look like against Swedes abroad?
– The whole idea with the type of terrorism we saw examples of in Brussels, or in France the other day, is that it should be so terrifying that you cannot feel safe anywhere, says Magnus Norell.
Jörgen Holmlund sees a risk that one act leads to several.
– Unfortunately, this type of event is usually a source of inspiration for others, which worries me.
FACTS The terrorist attack in Brussels
At 19:15 on Monday evening, a man armed with an automatic weapon opened fire on several people near the Sainctelette square in central Brussels. Two people, men in their 60s and 70s, are killed. A third is seriously injured. All are Swedish citizens.
According to Belgian media, the suspected perpetrator is a 45-year-old from Tunisia. He was in Tunisia without permission after having an asylum application rejected. The man stayed ten years ago in Sweden and was also in prison here. It is unclear for which crime or crimes he was convicted.
A video has been shared on social media of a man in an orange reflective jacket opening fire on several people in an open street. In another video, the man, who claims to be loyal to the terrorist group IS, states that he killed three Swedes and that he did it to “take revenge on Muslims”.
The death occurred an hour and a half before Sweden’s European Championship qualifying match against Belgium in Brussels. The first half was played, but after the Swedish players were informed of the deed at half-time, the match was interrupted as they refused to play on.
A fruitless search for the perpetrator continued during the night. He was located on Tuesday morning and shot dead in connection with the arrest in a cafe a few kilometers northeast of the scene of the attack.
Read more THE FACTS The terrorist threat level
According to the Security Police, the terrorist threat level is based on “strategic assessments of actors’ intent and ability to commit terrorist attacks against Sweden”.
On August 17 this year, the head of the Security Police, Charlotte von Essen, decided to raise the terror threat level from three (increased threat) to four (high threat) on the five-point scale.
According to Säpo, the decision is not based on a single event. On the other hand, during the year there has been a gradual deterioration of the threat picture against Sweden, where Sweden has gone from being regarded as a “legitimate” to a prioritized target.
The Koran burnings have contributed to the image of Sweden as a country hostile to Islam. Several international terrorist groups have also directed threats against Sweden.
The last time the level was four was for a few months in 2015 and 2016. The police were then looking for a refugee who was suspected of planning a terrorist act in the country. The man was later cleared of the charges.
With the exception of the above-mentioned period, the level has been at a third since autumn 2010.
Source: Security Police
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