There are those who chose to stay. And those who preferred to separate from a subsidiary. Those who wanted to make their backs like Lactalis, Sanofi, L’Oréal or Bonduelle. And those who registered a large depreciation of assets in their accounts by definitively leaving Russia from the first months of the war in the spring of 2022, such as Société Générale or Renault. Almost 60 % of Western multinationals present in Russia at the start of the conflict still have an activity in the country today, according to the latest surveys carried out by experts from the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE). Even if a form of “financial cordon financial” now surrounds their business, 1,776 international groups still operate in Russia and have not changed their plan, 141 have put all new investments on pause and 364 have reduced the sail, closing Some stores for example. On the other side, 786 multinationals suspended their activity and 1,033 drew a line on the country.
While the conflict enters its fourth year and discussions between the United States and Russia began on a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, moral arguments put forward by certain groups have taken it from interest long -term financiers? “Those who have been slow to leave or did not want to leave the country are clearly the losers of history. Not only, they can no longer repatriate a very large part of the profits they make in the country but above all they can almost sell their assets even if they wish, “observes Agathe Demore, expert in geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Over the months, the pressure has increased on the companies that had chosen wait -and -see. As early as August 2022, Vladimir Putin signed a decree stipulating that foreign companies will not be able to yield their Russian assets without an agreement from the government. In certain strategic sectors, the signing of the Kremlin master is even compulsory. At the same time, during the packages of sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union, the number of potential buyers is reduced as a skin of sorrow while more and more companies, entities and legal persons are registered On the famous Western black lists. Coup de grace, finally, in October 2024 when Moscow decides to further harden the framework of transfers: the seller must offer the buyer a discount of at least 60 % of the price and agree to pay a “voluntary contribution” in tax to the Russian state.
The unknown of sanctions
A spoliation which does not say its name and which has made the fortune of certain new oligarchs which consist of small industrial empires at very little costs. Is this the reason why the family association Mulliez who wanted to sell the Russian subsidiary of Auchan in GazPrombank in the fall finally threw the sponge recently? The French distributor, who hoped to get nearly 400 million euros, would have been frankly cooled by the financial proposals of the Russian group.
In the meantime, business continues, even if inflation undermines the consumption of Russian households. Still according to the estimates carried out by Agathe asked for L’Express, the foreign multinationals still present in Russia would have released since the start of the conflict nearly 500 billion euros in income and paid to the Russian tax authorities nearly 16 billion taxes And various taxes … the most generous: the Raiffensen Austrian bank which would have paid, by itself, almost a tenth of this sum. What participate in the war effort of Vladimir Putin, while military spending now represent almost 9 % of the country’s GDP. With the conversion of Russia to the war economy, the army budget alone should absorb more than 40 % of the country’s tax revenues this year.
The rest of the story will largely depend on the negotiations under way between Moscow and Washington. The lifting of part of the sanctions imposed by the United States would be part of the package of requests put on the table by the Kremlin. “In the American Chamber of Commerce in Moscow, a list of possibly lightened sanctions has already been established,” confirms a French industrialist still on site. On the Brussels side, David O’Sullivan, the Mister EU sanctions, has just announced a new action train, this time affecting Russian aluminum. Again, the gap between Europe and the United States widens.
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