TOGETHER. For Emmanuel Macron, LREM and its allies, this first round of legislative elections was more complicated than expected. Arrived behind Nupes, what will be the strategy of the Together coalition for the 2nd round?
Look for a legislative result near you
[Mise à jour le 13 juin à 16h09] It does not matter that the gap is small, for Emmanuel Macron and the Together coalition (LREM, MoDem, Horizons, Agir) which has been set up to allow the President of the Republic to win a majority of deputies in the Assembly national, this 1st round of the legislative elections is a failure. The Head of State’s candidates did not manage to convince a frank part of the voters. Result, the presidential camp and the union of the left (Nupes) stand in a pocket handkerchief. Advantage for Ensemble according to the Ministry of the Interior (25.75% against 25.66%), advantage for Nupes according to data from the World (26.11% against 25.88%). A difference in voice which is explained by a labeling of the candidates different operated by the newspaper compared to that carried out by the administration. Be that as it may, the two political currents are neck and neck. Never had a post-presidential legislative election been so close. And never had a president seen his side be in second position.
A real blow of heat for Emmanuel Macron and his teams, who must now embark on an intense week of campaigning between the two rounds to tip the scales in their favor. As between the 1st and 2nd round of the presidential election, LREM will therefore have to seek votes to try to win a majority in the National Assembly. A major difference: the opponent is no longer called the National Rally but the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes). From a duel with the far right, Emmanuel Macron must move on to a battle with an alliance of the left bringing together La France insoumise, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, the Communist Party and the Socialist Party. Two months later, the President will have to flirt with the right. A symbol of “at the same time”.
276 duels Together (LREM) – Nupes
But if in April, the suspense was minimal on the outcome of the vote, this week between the two rounds of the legislative elections is, this time, classified as high risk by LREM. It must be said that the high score of the left, that Together will challenge in 276 constituencies, according to the count of the World, could put the presidential coalition in the National Assembly in difficulty. Indeed, if the Macronists (or relatives) will be present in the 2nd round in 417 constituencies, the Nupes will also be present in 380 territories. And the projections of the polling institutes do not give La République en Marche and its allied parties the guarantee of winning the majority at the Bourbon Palace. Indeed, according to Ipsos-Sopra Steria, Ensemble would only win 255 to 295 seats. The majority is 289, while the Nupes could obtain between 155 and 190. Suffice to say that the days to come are going to be tense for an Emmanuel Macron and an Elisabeth Borne who will have to, unlike the entre- two rounds of April, campaigning… on the right this time, the main reservoir of votes in favor of the presidential camp, when he was on the left before April 24.
A campaign on the right a priori therefore, but not too much. At least, not to the extreme. “Not a single voice” at the National Rally hammered government spokesperson Olivia Grégoire, thus setting a clear course after procrastination on Sunday evening, on Macronie’s voting instructions in the Nupes-RN duels. She herself had evacuated the subject, speaking of “local debates” and not of a “national issue”, before reviewing her position, therefore. Something to calm the ardor of the left, which got carried away after the declarations of Olivia Grégoire, but also of Gabriel Attal, who had said he wanted to “wait to see the scenarios that will arise or not”, while recalling his “opposition to the extremes and in particular to the National Rally.” This was confirmed by Olivia Grégoire, although LREM’s position is not without reservation. “Does that mean we call for a vote for the few candidates who have anti-Republican positions, the few candidates who have in place of people who have been condemned for having stoned the police, no”, declared the door – speech of the government.
For Ensemble, a determining sequence thus opens. Already credited with a deputy in the person of Yannick Favennecre-elected in the 1st round in Mayenne, the presidential coalition will try to rely on its 15 minister-candidates, all qualified for the 2nd round, not without some cold sweats, in particular for Amelie de Montchalin, Clement Beaune and Stanislas Guerini, whose re-election is uncertain. A defeat would lead to their departure from the government, whose party only won 11.97% of registered voters in the first round.
As in 2017, Emmanuel Macron has forged an alliance in order to obtain the majority in the legislative elections. However, the content of the coalition set up in 2022 is very different from that of five years ago. By a simple agreement with the MoDem of François Bayrou, the President of the Republic has moved to a confederation bringing together six political parties in addition to the party he founded in 2016. Gathered under the banner “Together” – which is not not a party-, LREM, the MoDem, Agir (Franck Riester), Horizons (Edouard Philippe), Territory of progress (Olivier Dussopt), In Common (party of Barbara Pompili chaired by Philippe Hardouin) and the Radical Party (Laurent Hénart) have sealed a pact of support for Emmanuel Macron, leading negotiations for the distribution of constituencies. Thus, according to the agreement reached, 400 nominations were reserved for LREM, between 101 and 110 for the MoDem, as well as 58 for Horizons, the other formations each winning less than 10 constituencies.
A coalition which is however not without risk, worries one in Macronie. In particular vis-à-vis Edouard Philippe. If the former Prime Minister has always shown his loyalty to the Head of State, his political weight, but also his sympathy side (favorite political figure of the French), grant him the status of both ally and dissident of weight. in case of disagreement. Because if Emmanuel Macron does not obtain the majority (289 seats) with the only LREM candidates and it is the deputies stamped Horizons who allow him, the political force of his ex-tenant of Matignon will only be increased tenfold, him who can then brandish the threat of not voting in favor of a text emanating from the government or the parliamentary majority. In 2017, LREM had won 314 seats, ending however with 268 deputies after several splits and, therefore, without an absolute majority on its own.
According to the Ministry of the Interior, the Together coalition (LREM, MoDem, Horizons, Agir) won the first round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 12, with 25.75% of the votes cast, i.e. 5,857,561 votes cast. However, this only corresponds to 11.97% of registered voters, given an abstention of more than 52%. Candidates supporting Emmanuel Macron’s presidential project will be present in 417 constituencies in the second round.
What result in the polls for Emmanuel Macron and Together before the legislative elections?
While polling institutes had predicted a neck and neck match between Ensemble and Nupes, the results of the 1st round did not contradict the figures put forward. As for the 2nd round, the projections in number of seats obtained by Emmanuel Macron’s camp are not flattering for the President of the Republic. The latter is indeed uncertain of obtaining a majority of deputies in the National Assembly, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey which only credits the Macronists with 255 to 295 seats, knowing that the majority at the Bourbon Palace is 289 seats. Together will he manage to afford an absolute majority?
Did La République en Marche really become “Renaissance”?
In recent days, the news of the change of identity of La République en Marche has circulated a lot. After being called En Marche when it was founded six years ago, then LREM once Emmanuel Macron was in power, the political formation had to change its name to be called “Renaissance”. The announcement was made by Stanislas Guerini, Thursday, May 5, 2022, during a press conference at party headquarters. “It is indeed a change of nature and name that we are initiating. It is a refoundation of LREM to build a presidential party which will be called Renaissance”, he explained. Exit LREM, make way for Renaissance? Not quite.
This modification is not definitive. Above all, the announcement could be premature. This is what explains Playbook, citing an inside party source. The majority would be visibly “surprised” to have learned of this announcement of the name change of the main party in the ruling coalition. This same term “Renaissance”, already used as the name for the LREM list in the 2019 European elections, should in reality be used for a “refounding process” to merge LREM into a larger whole. This union which “will absorb the small parties”, according to the source of Playbook, should also include “Agir” and “Territories of progress”, small formations on the same political line as LREM. A hypothesis that Stanislas Guérini seemed to confirm during his visit to RTL on May 6: “We have decided to launch the creation of a new political party, which will be called Renaissance, it is not done yet, but which will bring together (…) political parties, this is the proposal that we we are going to do to our partners, I am thinking of Agir, of Territories of progress (…)”. All with the aim of “creating a broader political party”, he explained. The transition from LREM to Renaissance is therefore not for now.