MIDTERMS RESULTS. The final results of the 2022 midterms are still not known in the United States. If the House of Representatives seems won over to the Republicans, the fate of the Senate is still not decided.
[Mise à jour le 10 novembre à 15h33] More than 24 hours after the closing of the last polls, the results of the 2022 midterms are still not known in the United States. These American legislative elections (enhanced by numerous local ballots), organized mid-term of Joe Biden, aimed to renew the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. A crucial issue for the president elected in 2020, weakened in public opinion and who seemed on the verge of losing control of the country’s legislative power. Until now, the Democratic Party (with which he was elected) had a majority in both chambers.
The House of Representatives on the Republican side?
If the final figures are still not known, it is however recorded that no “red wave” (of the color of the Republican Party, that of Donald Trump) has swept over the United States during these elections. However, the obedience of the former American president should become the majority in the House of Representatives, which no longer had control of it since the mid-term elections of 2018. The latest projections from the channel NBC News give 222 seats to the “Grand Old Party” – as it is nicknamed – while the victory of 207 of its candidates has already been recorded. The results in 39 constituencies are still awaited but it seems unlikely that the Democratic Party will manage to catch up, which already has 189 elected to the House.
The fate of the Senate decided only at the beginning of December?
On the side of the Senate, it is only in several days – or even weeks – that the verdict will be known. The tightest elections of these midterms, the senatorials report a status quo in the United States compared to the vote of 2020. The Democratic Party of Joe Biden would be on the way to remaining in the majority, by a very short head. Until now, the hemicycle was composed of 50 Democratic senators and 50 Republicans. The scales tipped in favor of the presidential camp because of the additional voting power brought by Vice President Kamala Harris.
A quasi-similar organization should be enacted at the beginning of January 2023, when the 118e United States Congress will be officially launched. If the Democrats stole a seat from the Republicans with John Fetterman’s victory in Pennsylvania, Nevada could turn red. Adam Laxalt (50%) is three points ahead of outgoing Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (47%). But nothing is played. only 84% of the ballots have been counted and less than 15,000 votes separate the two candidates for the time being. “The rural polling stations are counted first. It goes faster because there are fewer inhabitants. And these inhabitants are more Republican. So, generally, we have the Republican ballots which are counted first. urban ballots, where there are many more inhabitants, take much longer to be counted. They are generally more Democratic ballots and the Democratic votes therefore come in a second time. We could therefore see a phenomenon, as in 2020, where the results seem to first favor the Republicans before turning towards the Democrats”, explains political scientist Laurence Nardon, head of the North America program at Ifri
on Slate.
The decision could finally be made on December 6 with the 2e round of the senatorial election in Georgia. In this state, neither Raphael Warnock (Democrat, outgoing senator) nor Herschel Walker (Republican) managed to collect 50% of the votes cast. They will thus face each other in four weeks, during an electric ballot which should be decisive for the control of the Senate. Only 35,000 votes separate the two contenders.
What does the victory of the Republicans in the House of Representatives change?
The victory of the Republicans in the House of Representatives is not trivial political, but far from historic. The loss of control of the lower house by the presidential camp is almost systematic during the mid-term elections, thus establishing cohabitation. However, from a legislative point of view, this should not have a significant impact on the end of Joe Biden’s term. “His action is not going to be upset because, on the one hand, his administration has already spent most of its program and, on the other hand, it is absolutely certain that the Republicans will not have 60% of the senators and, therefore, will not be able to repeal all this legislative work”, analyzes Laurence Nardon.
However, it should be noted that this change of majority will lead to the end of the parliamentary commission of inquiry into the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 launched by the Democrats and which targeted Donald Trump. On the other hand, the Republicans should launch against the Biden administration: the chaotic exit of the United States from Afghanistan, the suspicions of corruption of which the son of Biden is the subject will have to be the main subjects.