The composition of the government could be significantly shaken up by July 18. Understand everything about the days ahead and the room for maneuver available to Emmanuel Macron and his government team.
In accordance with republican tradition, Emmanuel Macron must appoint a Prime Minister from the majority party in the last legislative elections in the coming days, namely, the New Popular Front. In fact, nothing obliges him to do so. Under Article 8 of the French Constitution, the President of the Republic is the only person authorized to appoint the new Prime Minister. This is a discretionary choice by the Head of State, without any special conditions. Logic dictates that the chosen personality must gather sufficient parliamentary support to avoid a motion of censure. If a motion of censure is adopted by the majority of members of the National Assembly against this new Prime Minister, the government is then overthrown. It now remains to know the name of the new Prime Minister, and the date on which he or she will be appointed, in the same way as the other members of a potential new government.
What date for the reshuffle?
The President of the Republic may decide to reshuffle for various reasons, such as to give a government new momentum or to respond to political crises. In this case, it will be imposed on him for one reason: without a relative majority or without the support of the deputies, the government will fall. The President will appoint the Prime Minister and, on the latter’s proposal, will appoint the other members of the government.
When could the government change? This is the main question that Emmanuel Macron will have to answer. Once Gabriel Attal’s resignation has been refused to “ensure the stability of the country”, the government in place retains all of its duties. If the youngest Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic will remain in place “as long as duty requires”, his hours are numbered at Matignon. In particular because, due to the current situation in which the government has not resigned, the ministers elected to the National Assembly after the early legislative elections will not be able to participate in the key votes in the chamber next week.
This is why the scenario of a medium-term extension of Gabriel Attal is unlikely to see the light of day. If Emmanuel Macron were to accept the resignation of his Prime Minister, the ministers in place would become resigned until the appointment of a new government team. At the same time, for elected ministers who wish to be deputies and have weight in the Assembly, in particular by registering in committees in key positions, the deadline for the formation of groups is set for July 18, 2024! Subject to the acceptance of their resignation by Emmanuel Macron. Now, time is running out and the votes of these famous elected ministers could well count when it comes to voting on contested texts.
The announcement of a reshuffle could therefore come in the coming days, as could the proposal of a left-wing Prime Minister by the New Popular Front. The alliance that won the early legislative elections has still not positioned itself to bring out a leader. While the names of François Ruffin, Clémentine Autain, Clémence Guetté and Marine Tondelier are circulating, no decision has been made.
Darmanin, Riester, Fesneau… These ministers elected as deputies
Coming in second place in their constituency in the first round, the fate of Gérald Darmanin (Minister of the Interior), Thomas Cazenave (Minister Delegate for Public Accounts of France), Stéphane Séjourné (Minister of Foreign Affairs), Prisca Thevenot (Government Spokesperson), Olivia Grégoire (Minister Delegate for Small and Medium Enterprises), Jean-Noël Barrot (Minister Delegate for Europe), Aurore Bergé (Minister for Equality), Marie Lebec (Minister Delegate for Relations with Parliament), Hervé Berville (Secretary of State for the Sea and Biodiversity) and Roland Lescure (Minister Delegate for Industry and Energy), Franck Riester (Minister Delegate for Foreign Trade), Frédéric Valletoux (Minister of Health), Agnès Pannier-Runacher (Minister Delegate to the Minister of Agriculture), Marc Fesneau (Minister of Agriculture), Marina Ferrari (Secretary of State responsible for digital technology) and Guillaume Kasbarian (Minister Delegate for Housing) were waiting for the voters to vote in the second round. All were elected as deputies.
Stanislas Guérini and Sarah El Haïry defeated in the second round
For Marie Guévenoux (Minister Delegate for Overseas Territories), Sabrina Agresti-Roubache (Secretary of State for the City of France), Fadila Khattabi (Minister for Disabled People), Patricia Mirallès (Secretary of State to the Minister of the Armed Forces) and Dominique Faure (Minister Delegate for Rural Affairs), the game was lost even before the second round of the legislative elections. The five candidates had decided to withdraw in their constituency following the results of the first round, responding favorably to Gabriel Attal’s call for a blockade against the RN.
On the other hand, Stanislas Guérini (Minister of Digital Transformation) and Sarah El Haïry (Minister Delegate for Children, Youth and Families) were both beaten in the second round by the NFP.