To meet the objective set by the Paris Climate Agreement and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, some are calling for degrowth. But researchers assure today that it remains possible to limit global warming to 1.5°C in 2100 in a world in continuous economic growth. Here’s how.
You will also be interested
[EN VIDÉO] Are biodiversity and economy compatible? Some advocate green growth, others are moving towards stagnation or a decline in the economy… If the solution to reconcile the economy with respect for nature does not seem clear, it remains obvious that our model must evolve. . You have to innovate. And what better source of inspiration than the only company that has been innovating every day since the dawn of its existence?
To fight against the global warming and reach the goal of zero episode clearly, some claim that there will ultimately be no other possible path than that of degrowth. But researchers of theUniversity College London (United Kingdom) today want to be reassuring on this subject. According to them, countries will be able to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050 while maintaining economic growth.
The researchers, led by Paul Ekins — a professor of environmental policy, doctor of economics and a member of the United Nations (UN) Resource Panel — studied energy systems and macroeconomic models. Their objective: to find out whether the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement can be achieved in a world of continuous economic growth until 2100.
The researchers note, first, that already, the carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) of the European Union have fallen by 25% since 1990. Even as the economy jumped by 50%. A first indication that reducing greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth can go hand in hand.
In a new analysis, we find there are now 32 countries that have absolutely decoupled economic growth from CO2 since 2005. In these places both territorial emissions and consumption emissions (which include CO2 imported in goods) are falling. https://t.co/OVmzaFTEcP
Threaded: 1/21 pic.twitter.com/ZDynuV5eZ1— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) April 6, 2021
Rely on strong environmental policies
To understand how things might evolve in the future, the researchers modeled several scenarios. They bet on a slowdown in the growth of global demand for primary energy. This will end in 2100 at only 30% more than in 2020. The researchers also modeled the deployment of renewable technologies necessary to decarbonize the production of electricity while producing seven times more than the consumption of 2010. They are raised the question of the replacement of fossil fuels in transport, heating and certain industrial processes. Finally, they counted on the deployment of technologies for capturing and storing the carbon and a reduction in the use of coal at the same rate as that observed in the United States in recent years.
The scenario ” Medium “ gives economic growth after 2020 which drops from 3.5% to just over 1% in 2100. A decline mainly due to the stabilization of the world population. Per capita growth roughly halves over these 80 years as growth in investment — investment essential to decarbonization — slows, largely after 2040. The average annual growth rate over the period 2020- 2100 compatible with an energy system that reaches 1.5°C in 2100 – it will still have to pass a peak of 1.87°C between 2050 and 2060 – is 1.76%. In 2100, the global economy is five times larger than in 2015.
The researchers conclude that the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100 remains achievable. Even in a world of economic growth. Provided that efforts and investments are intensified in matter ofenergetic efficiency and rapid deployment of low carbon or even negative emission technologies. All in a world that cooperates and agrees on a strong environmental policy and low population growth.
Interested in what you just read?