According to various estimates, Russia is now far too weak to attack NATO. The purpose of war scenarios is mainly to wake up to the threat, says researcher Jyri Lavikainen.
Talks about a possible confrontation between Russia and the defense alliance NATO have intensified. The experts who visited morning on Thursday still do not believe that Russia will attack NATO in the near future.
Just in the last few days, threatening pictures have received a lot of attention in the media.
Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas warned In an interview with The Times, that Russia could threaten NATO’s borders within three years. German Bild, on the other hand highlighted a secret document of the country’s Ministry of Defense, according to which Russia would expand its aggression to NATO’s borders already this year.
Former intelligence chief of the General Staff, major general (evp) and current member of parliament of the coalition Pekka Toveri already had time to appease the worst fears.
Director of the Military Art Department, Colonel Pasi Hirvonen The National Defense University emphasizes that the situation discussed in the Bild magazine is not an analysis of the future, but a scenario made for an exercise. Russia does not even have the ability to attack NATO within a few years.
– It seems that Russia and especially its ground forces have been significantly worn out in the war in Ukraine. A general estimate in the West is that when the war ends, it would take Russia five to ten years to rebuild its armed forces, Hirvonen said in the morning of .
A researcher is on the same lines Jyri Lavikainen From the Foreign Policy Institute.
According to Lavikainen, an armed confrontation with NATO does not fit well with Russia’s strategy. Until now, it has been based specifically on the fact that the country does not get into an open war against NATO.
He reminds that Russia typically attacks its weaker side – and NATO is clearly stronger than Russia. Lavikainen interprets the scenarios presented in public as concerns about what would happen if he were elected president in the United States Donald Trump.
– Then the balance of power in Europe swings in the other direction if the worst scenario happens, which I don’t believe will happen. I think that the purpose is above all to awaken to the long-term construction of the defense.
A week ago, Trump commented on the US’s commitment to NATO, should he be elected for a new term.
– It depends on whether they treat us properly. NATO has taken advantage of our country, Trump said to Fox News.