The extremist movement Isis is gathering its strength again, and at least within the movement there is faith in a new rise.
This is what the researcher thinks Antonio Giustozzi. He works at the British Royal United Services Institute in a program focused on terrorism and conflicts.
The reason for the change is especially two attacks that were successful for Isis; first in January in Iran and then in Moscow in March.
Giustozzi has closely followed ISIS-K, the branch of ISIS operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Isis-K is considered the perpetrator of the March terrorist attack in Moscow.
However, according to Giustozzi, the decision to attack Russia apparently came from the ISIS leadership. The announcement of the perpetrators of the attack also came through ISIS’s centralized propaganda machine.
Isis believes in a new rise
Giustozzi says the attacks create the impression that ISIS is on the rise again.
– We have noticed that self-confidence has grown in the ranks of ISIS and the atmosphere has changed.
The Kerman bombing in Iran in January killed more than 90 people. At that time, Isis attacked the Iranian general killed by the US Qassem Suleimani to the memorial service.
In March, around 140 people died when four Tajiks attacked the Crocus concert hall on the outskirts of Moscow.
Researchers have sources inside ISIS and are able to monitor chat channels where the movement’s issues are discussed. According to Giustozzi, sources must be viewed critically, but it seems clear that the atmosphere began to change at the beginning of the year after the attack in Kerman.
– The important thing is not the number of dead, but how much attention the attack attracts. The Kerman attack was not perfect for ISIS, but the Iranian authorities were completely unable to prevent the spread of information and images.
The Moscow attack received significantly more attention.
The exact role of ISIS in Solingen is unclear
Last week’s knife attack in Solingen, Germany was small compared to the massive terrorist attacks in Kerman and Moscow. But the attack has shocked and garnered a lot of attention.
German According to Der Spiegel magazine Isis has released a video in which a man speaking Arabic pledges his loyalty to the movement. The speaker is masked, and it is not known for sure if the person appearing in the video is the perpetrator of the knife attack.
According to Syrian opposition media there is also a video of a man in the center of Solingen before the stabbings. However, there are question marks associated with the events.
So far, it is not certain whether the Solingen attacker acted alone or whether Isis was involved in the preparation of the attack. It is possible that Isis claimed responsibility for the attack, even though the perpetrator acted independently.
– If it turns out that this act was organized in advance and there is support and some kind of cell in the background, it means that Isis is making an effort to carry out more attacks like the Crocus concert hall, says Giustozzi.
By taking credit for the Solingen attack, Isis is trying to stay in the public spotlight.
– After Crocus, even relatively small blows get more attention. The perception is that Isis is about to rise again, says Giustozzi.
He thinks that what is going on is a broader attempt by Isis to gain new leverage, and it is not about a division between Isis K and the rest of Isis.
Supporters reward for strikes
The attacks affect the funding of ISIS.
– The group now receives more money than before. Especially after the concert hall strike, the situation changed, even though we are far from peak years.
Wealthy supporters can be found in the countries of the Persian Gulf region.
The group of big donors is small. There are probably several million dollars in circulation, Giustozzi estimates. However, due to supervision, transferring money is difficult and expensive.
In order to increase its independence from large donors, Isis is developing a type of microfinance. In that case, the ISIS fundraisers may not even say where the money goes.
– It could be said that the money is collected for the children and women of the Syrian camps, says Giustozzi.
The suspicion is that the money does not go there but to Isis.
Isis apparently tries to collect money also by infiltrating, for example, discussion groups in mosques.
– Initially, Salafist material containing strict religious interpretations is distributed. Then we monitor who reacts positively, and we share even stronger content, including political ones. Finally, we go to private messages and ask for money.
According to Giustozzi, even at this stage, the fundraisers probably won’t reveal that the money is going to ISIS but to, for example, Gaza or the camps in Syria.
The amounts are relatively small, 50–100 euros.
– This is similar to fundraising for a non-governmental organization.
Isis attracts young people
The suspect in the Solingen knife attack is 26 years old, but in some cases those who prepared the attacks are very young.
Earlier this month, Austrian authorities arrested three youths with an immigrant background suspected of planning the attack Taylor Swift’s to a concert in Vienna. The main suspect is 19 years old, the others are 17 and 18 years old.
Spring in Germany four 15- to 16-year-olds suspected of planning terrorist attacks were arrested.
In recruitment, social media is very important.
– Isis is hyperactive on social media channels. They spread propaganda, but also recruit.
Recruitment in discussion groups
Young men who spend a lot of time online, for example playing games, are an interesting group. Recruiters can move around, for example, in discussion groups related to gaming.
– This type of infiltration has been used in Afghanistan, Central Asia and Turkey. We can assume that this will also happen in Europe.
– The target group includes people with social and psychological problems. You can show them a kind of success and how places are broken up. Many teenagers are already angry for various reasons, Giustozzi reflects on the temptations of ISIS propaganda.
According to him, there are many frustrated young men and boys. It may be that the idea of having some kind of purpose in life can be interesting, even though it is destructive.
– It is enough that a few of the people who are contacted react positively. You don’t need large crowds for this.
Isis still has big problems
Knife attacks and devastating truck attacks in Sweden, Germany and France a few years ago show that destruction can be caused without explosives and automatic weapons.
According to Giustozzi, Isis has difficulties in carrying out large-scale operations like the terrorist attack in Moscow.
One problem is obtaining effective military-style weapons.
– I don’t think that Isis could bring weapons and explosives to Europe. They don’t have that level of organization.
Another option is to obtain weapons from organized crime groups.
Giustozzi says that weapons can be found in the Balkans as a result of wars in the region and weapons can also be transported from Ukraine.
– Acquiring weapons from the black market is risky because the intelligence services infiltrate the networks of smugglers. An inexperienced terrorist buying explosives from the black market may run into the police.
According to Giustozzi, it’s also about who Isis can take advantage of.
When the ISIS caliphate in Syria and Iraq collapsed, many people apparently returned from there to Europe.
– The assumption was that these people would continue to serve ISIS, but those returning home were tired of ISIS, Antonio Giustozzi reflects.