Belarusian President Lukashenko is fueling the Belarusians’ longing for peace with a special method: by believing that the country is under attack.
25.4. 18:15•Updated 25.4. 18:18
Researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Arkady Moshes is not surprised by the Belarusian authorities’ claims that an aerial attack on Belarus was carried out from Lithuanian soil.
– All this is done so that the president Alexander Lukashenko gets to create a story about Belarus under attack from the West.
The story serves several purposes.
– Belarus will have presidential elections next year. Lukashenka must maintain his public image as the guardian of constitutional order and the guarantor of peace in Belarus, says Moshes.
Lukashenko wants a new confirmation of his popularity from the election and avoids any kind of protest.
According to Moshes, the majority of Belarusians want exactly one thing: peace. In Lukashenka’s story, the Belarusians’ longing for peace is threatened by NATO and the Western countries, from whom only he can protect the country.
– Of course, Lukashenko’s statements are inconsistent. In the past, he has warned that exiled opposition politicians will attack Belarus from Poland and Lithuania in pick-up trucks equipped with machine guns, Moshes says.
With their communication, Lukashenko and the Belarusian leadership also serve the country’s most important ally, ie Vladimir Putin Russia. Moshes estimates that Putin is satisfied with Lukashenka’s service.
– Russia can use the territories, airspace and military bases of Belarus as it wants for its needs in the Ukraine war. The Kremlin does not need to occupy Belarus, it only needs to control the country’s leadership, says Moshes.
According to Moshes, Russia does not even need Belarusian soldiers. When, according to the latest estimates, Russia now has a total of around 600,000 soldiers in Ukraine, Belarus’ forces of around 10,000 combat-ready soldiers are of little interest.
– Russia can easily find 10,000 Russians that it can train and send to war, says Moshes.
According to the researcher, the relationship between the two countries has been very stable since Russia attacked Ukraine. When Belarus’s dependence on Russian financial support and the dependence of Belarusian trade on Russian ports are added to the equation, the Kremlin need not fear any surprises from Lukashenka.
Lukashenko can intimidate the opposition movement in exile with veiled threats aimed at their relatives living in Belarus.
– Lukashenko made these threats for the last time today. This is terrible, and these threats should not succeed without a response from the West and European politicians.